There was a tremendous amount of shakeout in odds this past week on the Democratic side, to reflect the big changes in the field. It all started with an endorsement of Joe Biden prior to the South Carolina primary by Jim Clyburn. Although Biden would have likely won with or without the endorsement, it helped Biden to a route as he more than doubled Bernie Sanders’ vote total. That was followed up shortly with Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer all dropping out and endorsing Biden prior to Super Tuesday. This gave Biden the momentum for Super Tuesday, where he beat Bernie Sanders (who prior to the weekend was believed to be the winner for that important day). This also ended the short lived but expensive campaign of Michael Bloomberg who endorsed Biden as well, and ended the campaign of Elizabeth Warren, who has yet to endorse anyone.

Where does this leave us as far as the odds with really three candidates remaining?

Despite the improved likelihood of a centrist (Biden) winning the Democratic ticket, and the bad headlines on the Coronavirus/stock market, Trump’s odds remained very resilient. They were flat to last week’s 1.60X and just shy of the all time high of 1.59X. They have been either 1.59X or 1.60X the last 5 weeks. The combined odds for Biden and Sanders are currently 2.93, which puts Trump’s odds against those two at 65.2%

Joe Biden’s results obviously saw a tremendous jump from 8.70X to 3.99X, his all tine high.

3.99X is exactly where Sanders was last week. He dropped this week from 3.99X to 12.0X. His lowest since mid November.

Hillary Clinton and Mike Pence remained fairly strong as the alternatives at 71.1X and 74.6X, and Michael Bloomberg, with the ability to come in from sidelines with his billions should Biden falter is at 166.0X.

With the Democrats down to two main candidates, we will transition this blog to look at those two candidates against Trump on a state by state basis. Below is the current summary of the more important states (either swing or high number of electoral), and recent polls of the two candidates vs. Trump. This will get refined as more polls start coming in. Currently, this crude method has Democrats winning by 50 electoral votes regardless of candidate (the opposite of what the betting market suggests). Although the result is the same whether it’s Biden or Sanders, it’s important to point out that with the 6 states with recent polls, Biden does better against Trump in 4 of them than Sanders does. They both do equally against Trump in the other 2.

Here are the current odds of the remaining field as well as the state by state early look:

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