Updated Weekly Odds: Trump Drops; Sanders, Cruz, Kasich Gain; Ryan Gaining Steam

Hillary Clinton continued to have a comfortable lead, dropping slightly from 63.2% to 62.3%.  This is her third straight week over 60%.

Donald Trump had the biggest movement dropping from 23% to 17.6%.  This is the lowest he has been in the last 6 weeks as comments about punishing women for abortion (later backtracked) and his nuclear policy took front stage.

Bernie Sanders had a significant improvement moving from 4.8% to 7.3%, his highest in the last six weeks.  This was a result of him sweeping Clinton in three states last week (Alaska, Hawaii, Washington)

With Trump’s drop, his two Republican rivals gained.  Ted Cruz improved from 3.3% to 5.1%.  That is the highest he has been in 12 weeks. John Kasich improved from 2.8% to 4.1%.  That is the highest he has been in the race. Previous high was 3.8% two weeks ago.

The person who’s odds have consistently gained the last six weeks is Paul Ryan.  He jumps from 0.9% to 1.7%.  He was at merely 0.2% seven weeks ago. That is the highest he has been since January of 2015.  He has always maintained he is not running.  This is a play on both a contested primary, as well as the possibility of an independent run by someone causing no outright winner in the general elections.

Here are the full odds:

April 4 2016 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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