Updated Weekly Odds: Romney Surges, Ryan Tumbles

While Hillary Clinton has maintained her big lead over other candidates, the field behind her has become very volatile driven by news and speculation on who’s running.

December was the month that Jeb Bush announced he would explore running.  His Odds doubled  from 4.9% to end November to last week’s 9.8%

Now it’s Mitt Romney’s turn.  He announced that he is giving serious thought to running earlier in the week.  His odds as a result shot up from 2.3% to 3.1%.  He is now 6th overall swapping spots with Elizabeth Warren.  What’s interesting is to look at who his increase in odds came at the expense of:

Jeb Bush accounted for 0.2% of the 0.8% although he maintained his large lead for second place at 9.6%

Marco Rubio and Chris Christie each lost 0.1% but maintained their spots as 3rd and 4th place candidates.

Rand Paul was not affected

Paul Ryan, Romney’s former VP candidate, saw the biggest drop.  He lost 0.3% dropping to just 1.5%. He remained in 9th place but has seen consistent erosion since peaking at 4th place in the summer at a high of 3.9%.

Rob Portman has been declining over the last few weeks as it has become obvious he will be running for re-election to the Senate than for President.  He is now in 23rd place after being at 15th just a couple of months back.

Ben Carson dropped from 41st to 44th perhaps due to some ISIS comments he made

Here’s the update odds for the entire field

Jan 17 2015 pres oddsLink to the trend for the top 10 candidates
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