Updated Weekly Odds: Bush Continues Rise; Odds of Having First Female President

Hillary Clinton continues to dominate the odds at 40.2%.  She has been between 40% and 40.5% the last 5 weeks.

The big mover has been Jeb Bush.  He has improved for 8 straight weeks and took over the #2 overall spot from Marco Rubio on 11/8.  This week he improved to 9.2% from last week’s 8.5%.  Two months ago he was at just 4.1%.  He now has twice the odds as any of the other candidates behind him.  Rubio is still the closest competitor at 4.1%.

Aside from Bush, there were very little changes in odds.

With such a slow week, I decided to sum the odds up and see what they say about the likelihood of have a male vs. female, and Republican vs. Democrat.

Are we likely to have the first female president? The odds are currently at 51% male 49% female.  The top 3 female candidates are all Democrats: Clinton,  Elizabeth Warren who is in 6th overall at 2.4%, and Kirsten Gillibrand 13th overall at 1.3%.  The next two are Republican long shots with Susana Martinez and Condoleeza Rice at 1%.

How about Republicans vs. Democrats?  Currently, thanks to Clinton, the Democrats lead 58% to 42%.  Republican do have 4 of the top 5 candidates, but that is more of a function of there not being as strong a front-runner probability wise as the Democrats.

When combining gender and party, we find that we are most likely to have a Democrat who is female as the next president (46%) followed by a male Republican (39%), a male Democrat (12%) and a female Republican (3%)

Here are the overall odds for this week:

December27 2014 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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