Hillary Clinton continues to dominate the odds at 40.2%. She has been between 40% and 40.5% the last 5 weeks.
The big mover has been Jeb Bush. He has improved for 8 straight weeks and took over the #2 overall spot from Marco Rubio on 11/8. This week he improved to 9.2% from last week’s 8.5%. Two months ago he was at just 4.1%. He now has twice the odds as any of the other candidates behind him. Rubio is still the closest competitor at 4.1%.
Aside from Bush, there were very little changes in odds.
With such a slow week, I decided to sum the odds up and see what they say about the likelihood of have a male vs. female, and Republican vs. Democrat.
Are we likely to have the first female president? The odds are currently at 51% male 49% female. The top 3 female candidates are all Democrats: Clinton, Elizabeth Warren who is in 6th overall at 2.4%, and Kirsten Gillibrand 13th overall at 1.3%. The next two are Republican long shots with Susana Martinez and Condoleeza Rice at 1%.
How about Republicans vs. Democrats? Currently, thanks to Clinton, the Democrats lead 58% to 42%. Republican do have 4 of the top 5 candidates, but that is more of a function of there not being as strong a front-runner probability wise as the Democrats.
When combining gender and party, we find that we are most likely to have a Democrat who is female as the next president (46%) followed by a male Republican (39%), a male Democrat (12%) and a female Republican (3%)
Here are the overall odds for this week:
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