Trump’s odds see little change; Warren’s odds losing momentum, as Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg improve; Gabbard’s week in the headlines helps her odds

Another week of little change for Trump’s reelection odds, which given the impeachment inquiry headlines, is rather remarkable. The odds are currently at 2.25X, slightly below last week’s 2.24X. Taking a step back, these are his lowest odds since mid April, but much better than his cycle low of 3.46X in September 2017. The odds for the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 1.77X, meaning Trump’s odds against them dropped slightly from 44.2% to 44.1%.

The big move in odds that started a bit last week, and grew this week, seems to be a reversal of a long positive trend for Warren. Her odds had seen continuous improvement for 6 months, but have now been lower for two straight weeks. This week, the odds dropped from 3.37X to 3.82X, her lowest in 5 weeks. It seems much of the fire that Biden has been taking has now turned towards Warren given her front-runner status.

Speaking of Biden, a new poll released this week showed him well ahead of the field. It seems he is picking up voters as the secondary candidates decline. His odds improved from 8.20X to 7.28X, his highest in 5 weeks.

Bernie Sanders continued to improve as he touts AOC’s endorsement. His odds improved from 16.0X to 14.3X, his best in 4 weeks.

Big business seems to be warming up to Buttigieg. His odds jumped from 19.4X to 16.4X. These are his best odds in over 100 days.

Tulsi Gabbard has had an eventful week , including taking on Clinton, announcing she is not running for reelection for Congress, and going on Fox News to discuss her displeasure with closed door Democratic hearings. Her odds shot up from 88.7X to 58.9X, a 50% increase and her highest in 9 weeks. She is basically now tied with once Democratic favorite and now fallen star Kamala Harris who dropped from 46.5X to 57.7X. This is another all time low for Harris.

Here are the odds for candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the leaders

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Trump’s odds flat to last week; Winners from 4th debate include Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren; Sanders “resets” campaign and gets AOC endorsement; Romney and Bloomberg with big improvements

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.24X, about 15% lower than the 1.90X high set beginning of August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats dropped to 43.9% from 44.8%. This as a result of the top 5 Democrats improving their combined odds from 1.81X to 1.75X.

The Democrats had their 4th debate and based on the odds here’s the big winners:

Here are how to odds moved this week for all who were involved in the debate:

Hillary Clinton’s streak of 9 straight weeks of improvements finally came to an end as she dropped from 25.2X to 31.5X. That is still the highest of any non candidate.

Mitt Romney saw another jump in odds as he stepped up his talk against Trump’s Syria policy. The odds moved from 98.0X to 80.6X, his highest since January.

Michael Bloomberg’s odds nearly doubled from 197.4X to 107.7X as reports came out he is looking into possibly entering if Biden falters. These are his highest odds since May.

Here are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates

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Trump’s odds see small decline; Warren reaches another new high; Clinton odds continue to rise as both Trump and Clinton comment on a possible rematch; Rep. alternatives now higher than former Dem. frontrunners

Donald’s Trump’s odds saw another small decline, this week from 2.20X to 2.24X. This is the third straight decline and the lowest odds since mid April. His odds against the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 44.7% as their odds also dropped, from 1.78X to 1.81X.

Movements this week were a continuation of last week:

  • Elizabeth Warren remained the hottest name reaching yet another new high for anyone not named Trump. She improved from 3.45X to 3.32X.
  • For a second straight week Bernie Sanders odds tanked, with continued concerns over the heart attack. He drops from 17.9X last week to 22.1X this week. These are his lowest odds in 2 1/2 years. He was at 14.3X, but already declining, two weeks ago prior to the heart attack.
  • Clinton’s odds continued to rise jumping from 39.5X to 25.2X, their highest since August 2017. This is the 9th straight week of increases for Clinton and 5th straight week of large improvements. She was at 90.0X at the start of September. Both Trump and Clinton made comments this week about a possible rematch.
  • Republican alternatives to Trump also saw jumps with Pence improving from 48.9X to 37.3X, Haley from 53.0X to 41.9X, and Romney from 125.9X to 98.0X.

The jumps from Clinton and Trump Republican alternatives are causing some interesting distortions in relative odds. For example:

  • Clinton now has higher odds (25.2X) than Pete Buttigieg (26.4X)
  • Mike Pence has higher odds (37.3X) than Kamala Harris (38.1X)
  • Mitt Romney has higher odds (98.0X) than Beto O’Rourke (109.2X)

Here are the odds of all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates:

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News and Odds about the Presidential Elections