Iowa Poll of potential Republican electorate shows a tie between Jeb Bush and Rand Paul (12%) followed by Paul Ryan (11%), Rick Santorum (9%), Chris Christie (8%), and a three way tie for 6th of Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio (7%).

Interestingly, Rick Santorum moves from fourth to second for the question “Who is your second choice”
Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 70/20
Three Republican candidates are within the margin of error in a head to head battle with Clinton:
Clinton vs Paul 45/45
Clinton vs. Christie 44/43
Clinton vs. Bush 46/42 
Obama beat Romney 52/46 in Iowa in 2012

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This week I’m adding a probability for each candidate based on the relative odds of all candidates combined.

The top 3 candidates remain unchanged:
Clinton +165 / 40.8% probability
Bush and Rubio +1500 / 4.5% probability each

Improved Odds:
Rick Perry moves from 10th place to 7th place. (Odds from +5000 to +3000).  Probability  2.2%
Ted Cruz remains in 10th but improved odds from +5000 to +4000.  Probability 1.7%
Mitt Romney with biggest move this week from 29th to 12th (+8000 to +5000) probability 1.3%

Decreased Odds:
Christie and Ryan remain tied for 4th although both declined from +1800 to +2000 (probability 3.4%)
Joe Biden  declines from +2800 to +3500 (1.9%)
Michael Bloomberg declines from +6000 to +7000 (1.0%)

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

Follow me on twitter for updates @2016ElectOdds

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July 2014 Michigan Poll

2016 Presidential Poll released on 7/2 of 578 Michigan voters Clinton ahead of different Republican candidates:

Jeb Bush 47/37
Chris Christie 48/35
Ted Cruz 50/34
Mike Huckabee 48/36
Rand Paul 47/37
More interesting details including what college football teams they are a fan of in the  Release by Public Policy Polling!
In 2012 Obama beat Romney 54/45 in Michigan.

Follow me on twitter for updates @2016ElectOdds

Views – 627

News and Odds about the Presidential Elections