CNN Poll with likely nominees and a Romney vs. Obama question

CNN Poll taken 7/18-7/20 of 1,012 adults by Telephone

Republican nomination:
Chris Christie leading possible Republican candidates at 13% followed by Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee at 12% and Rick Perry and Paul Ryan at 11%. Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz are next at 8%

Christie and Perry show the biggest gain since their February 2014 poll gaining 3%.
Marco Rubio had the biggest decline from 9% to 6%.
All of these moves are within the poll’s +/- 4.5% sampling error

July 18-20 May 29-June 1 May 2-4 Mar. 7-9 Jan. 31-Feb. 2
Christie 13% 8% 9% 8% 10%
Paul 12% 14% 13% 16% 13%
Huckabee 12% 11% 10% 10% 14%
Perry 11% 6% 8% 11% 8%
Ryan 11% 10% 12% 15% 9%
Bush 8% 12% 13% 9% 10%
Cruz 8% 9% 7% 8% 8%
Rubio 6% 8% 6% 5% 9%
Walker 5% 5% 7% NA NA
Santorum 3% 4% 2% 3% 4%
Someone else 6% 6% 4% 6% 8%
None/No one 2% 2% 4% 4% 3%
No Opinion 3% 5% 7% 5% 4%
Democratic nomination:

No surprise the Hillary Clinton leads by a long shot here at 67%.
What has changed in the last few months has been the emergence of Elizabeth Warren (10%) as the #2 candidate ahead of Joe Biden (8%).
Warren had the biggest improvement in the poll since September 2013 improving by 3% while Biden has decreased by 2%.

                              July 18-20  Nov. 18-20   Sept. 6-8
                                 2014           2013            2013
 Clinton                     67%            63%            65%
 Warren                    10%             7%              7%
 Biden                       8%              12%            10%
 Cuomo                     4%               5%              6%
 O’Malley                   2%               2%              2%
 Someone else (vol.)   6%               6%              4%
 None/No one (vol.)     2%               3%              5%
 No opinion                1%               3%              2%

Romney vs. Obama and Romney vs. Clinton:
One interesting question is if there was an election today, who would you vote for, Romney or Obama?  Romney wins 53% to 44%.

Similar question with Romney vs. Clinton.  Clinton wins 55% to 42%

If you’d like to access the poll for more in depth analysis click here

For the odds on all the candidates
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For updates on the 2016 Presidential race, follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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Updated Presidential Odds: Warren, Christie, Carson

This week, the odds changed for 7 of the top 50 candidates.

The biggest move up was by Elizabeth Warren who moved from 8th place to 6th place with her probability moving from 1.9% to 2.7%. (Odds from 35 to 1 to 25 to 1)

The biggest move down was by Chris Christie who moved from 4th place to 7th place with his probability moving from 3.4% to 2.3%. (Odds from 20 to 1 to 30 to 1)

Another candidate moving up was Ben Carson from 45th to 29th place.  He nearly doubled his odds but remains a longshot with a probability of 0.7%  (Odds 250 to 1 to 100 to 1).  He was not even showing up as a candidate in the odds a month ago.

John Kerry dropped from 19th to 23rd with his odds now at 75 to 1.

Three minor candidates moved further down:
Jim Webb from 24th to 40th now at 150 to 1
Russ Feingold from 39th to 43rd now at 200 to 1
Debbie Wasserman Shultz from 41st to 43rd at 200 to 1

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

For updates on 2016 Presidential odds and polls follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 813

News and Odds about the Presidential Elections