Updated Weekly Odds: Romney Continues Quiet Ascend; Hillary’s Lead Increases

Hillary Clinton’s odds continued to drift up with a probability of 40.5% vs. prior week’s 40.2%.  This is the highest she has been seen August.

On the Republican side Mitt Romney has been quietly moving up.  This week he bumps Joe Biden aside for 7th place.  That is the highest he has been.  Romney was as low as 17th place back in September when he insisted he is not running.

Overall, Jeb Bush continues to lead the Republicans at 6.5% with Marco Rubio and Chris Christie trailing at 4.5% and 4.0% respectively. and Paul (3.3%) and Mitt Romney (2.2%) round out the top 5 for the Republicans.

On the Democratic side, Tim Kaine (Senator from Virginia) has improved from 28th place in November to 22nd this week, although he remains a long shot: his probability is at a mere 1.0% and is 10th place as far as the Democrats.

The main Democratic Challengers for Hillary remain Elizabeth Warren (2.7%), Joe Biden (2.1%), Martin O’Malley (1.6%), Andrew Cuomo (1.5%), and Kirsten Gillibrand (1.4%).

Here’s the full odds

December 7 2014 pres odds

 

Views – 994

Updated Weekly Odds: Bush Widens Lead over Rubio

There have been some major moves since the election a few weeks back.

Hillary Clinton continues to lead the odd by a wide margin with a probability of 39.3%, a full 3% ahead of her closest opponent. This is her highest probability since August.

Jeb Bush has passed Marco Rubio and had widened his lead.  His probability is now at 6.4% vs. Rubio’s 4.5%.

Two other big movers for the Republicans are Scott Walker who is now in 10th place (and now included in the graphical trend) at 1.6% and Rob Portman moving into 16th place at 1.2%.

One the Democratic side Elizabeth Warren continues to be the top threat to Clinton.  She is in 6th place overall at 2.6%. She is followed by Biden in 7th, Martin O’Malley in 11th, Andrew Cuomo in 13th and Kirsten Gillibrand in 14th.

Here’s the full odds

November29 2014 pres odds

 

Views – 1027

Updated Weekly Odds: Portman, Patrick move up

Yet another week with no movement in the top 10.  Hillary Clinton‘s lead continued to shrink but she is still more than 7 times more likely to win than any other individual:  Clinton’s probability is 37.9% vs. Marco Rubio‘s 4.9%.

A little bit more movement just outside the top 10 as Scott Walker and Martin O’Malley move up to 11th and 12th respectively replacing Ted Cruz and Tim Pawlenty.  It’s odd in that for the two to move up in that Walker is in the middle of fighting to hold on to his position and O’Malley’s own constituents don’t believe he should run in 2016

Other moves up were Ohio Senator Rob Portman (from 22 to 16) who will decide after the midterms whether to run and Mass. Governor Deval Patrick (from 27 to 20) who announced he is going back to the private sector.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 820

News and Odds about the Presidential Elections