Updated Weekly Odds: Clinton, Gillibrand, Webb up. O’Malley, Christie, Romney down

In a surprise and a reversal of the recent trend, Hillary Clinton’s odds increased from 37.7% to 39.3%.  This changes the slow decline that started in  December where Clinton was at 40.5%.  This change in fortune is counter-intuitive with the “e-mail scandal” in the news this past week.  Perhaps it reminds people of the Clinton Presidency.

The Democratic jockying for the challenger to Clinton continued to heat up.  Two candidates that showed some big moves were Kirsten Gillibrand and Jim Webb.

Gillibrand moved up from 14th to 11th place, which is the highest she has been.  She has been steadily moving up since making her debut at 54th place in August.    She is in 5th place for the Democrats.

Webb is seen as a man with little to lose, posing a threat to Clinton.  He moves up from 22nd  place to 18th, and was as low as 48th in late January.  He is in 8th place for the Democrats.

One falling Democrat is Martin O’Malley. He drops from 11th overall to 15th  after failing to get any votes in a recent Iowa Poll.  This is the lowest he has been since I started tracking in May 2014.

On the Republican side, Chris Christie dropped from 5th to 6th swapping positions with Rand Paul.  Just a month ago, Christie was in 4th and held that position since August.  He has since been passed by both Paul and Scott Walker.

People betting on Romney seem to be finally coming to the realization that he will not change his mind.  He drops from 8th to 9th.  He was in 5th place just 6 weeks ago.

Here is the updated full list of odds:

March 7 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

Views – 917

Updated Weekly Odds: Walker continues to climb, Clinton’s big lead diminishes; O’Malley, Patrick, Webb up

Hillary Clinton continues to have a big but shrinking lead.  She is now at 37.6%, the lowest since Sept ’14 but still more than three times her next closest competitor.  Jeb Bush is second at 11.6% up 0.1% from the prior week and 2% from 5 weeks ago.

The biggest mover continues to be Scott Walker who stays in 4th place but is up 0.5% to 3.6%.  He was at only 1.5% 5 weeks ago.

There is some movement for some of the potential Democratic candidates.

Martin O’Malley moved up to 11th from 12th passing Paul Ryan who continues to fall.  O’Malley is hosting an “issues summit” which can lead to his formal candidacy.

Daval Patrick continues to move up, this week reaching 15th.  Back in the summer he was in the 40s.

Jim Webb has also seen a recent surge, moving up to 22nd this week from 48th in January.  He claims he would run if he can raise enough money without “selling out”

Here is the full list of odds:

February 21 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 903

Update Weekly Odds: Bush and Walker Continue to Rise; Ryan Out of Top 10

For the last few weeks, Scott Walker has been the hottest candidate.  He is up from 11th 4 weeks ago and 9th 2 weeks ago to 4th place overall this week as he moved ahead of Chris Christie and Rand Paul.  His odds have more than doubled in 3 weeks from 1.5% to 3.1%.

Jeb Bush continues to be the odds on favorite for the Republicans and had a big move up this week from 10.0% to 11.5%.  He has a higher probability than the next three candidates combined (Rubio 4.5%, Walker 3.1%, Christie 3.1%). His money raising efforts have kicked into high gear especially since Mitt Romney left the race.

Hillary Clinton continues to be the odds on favorite at 38.0% (as much as the next 13 candidates combined!), but that is the lowest she has been at since November.

Paul Ryan has been drifting down and he is now at his lowest point dropping to 11th place behind Andrew Cuomo at just 1.3%.  Ryan peaked in June 2014 in 4th place overall and at 3.9%.

Here is the updated odds by candidate:

February 14 2015 pres trend

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 896

News and Odds about the Presidential Elections