Updated Odds: Rubio Closing Gap on Bush; O’Malley, Pataki, Santorum Enter Race; Christie Continues Slide

Hillary Clinton continued her steadiness at the top increasing her probability by 0.1% to 41.9%.  That, along with Jeb Bush’s 0.2% drop increased her lead over Bush to 30.6%.

The biggest mover near the top was Marco Rubio who improved by 0.3% to 5.7%.  The shrunk Bush’s lead on Rubio to 5.5%, which is the slowest it has been since February 2015.   Back in November, Rubio was actually ahead of Bush.  Bush then surged in December with his announcement that he would explore running, and has been the closest candidate to Clinton since.

All announcements this week have had very little impact:

Martin O’Malley’s announcement only moved him by 0.1%, but enough to get into 10th place overall.  He is currently the 4th leading Democratic candidate although he’s behind one person who has said she is not running (Elizabeth Warren) and one who is unlikely to run (Joe Biden).

Rick Santorum’s entry failed to move him at all.  He remains in 24th place overall at a 0.7% probability.

George Pataki makes his debut  in 46th place overall at only a 0.4% probability.

In other moves, Chris Christie continues to tumble dropping to 8th place at 1.4%.  It’s hard to remember, but back in May 2014, Christie was actually Clinton’s biggest competition, peaking at 4.7%.

Ben Carson moved ahead of Mike Huckabee to 14th place.

Here’s a full list of the odds:

May 30 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

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Updated Odds: Bush Slowly Closing Gap on Clinton; Walker Resumes Rise; Carson and Huckabee in Top 15

Hillary Clinton continues to be the favorite to win the Presidency at 41.8%, her highest since August 2014.  Her lead over Jeb Bush has shrunk to its lowest level since late April.  Bush is now at 11.4%, 30.4% behind Clinton.

The candidate making the biggest move this past week was Scott Walker.  He improved from 4.3% to 4.6%.  That is the highest he has ever been.  He is within striking distance of Rubio’s 5.4% for 3rd overall. Walker is expected to announce whether he is running in June.

Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson have done well since announcing and have broken into the top 15.

Huckabee is now in 14th up from 22nd place at the beginning of April.

Carson is in 15th place, up from 22nd place since the start of the month.

Bernie Sanders drops to 27th overall after her rose for three straight weeks after his announcement.  He was in 22nd place last week.

Here are the full odds with the candidates that have announced they are running in green:

May 23 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

Views – 903

Updated Odds and Looking Back A Year

This week’s top 10 came in the same as last week’s with Hillary Clinton leading at 41.8%.  Her closest Democratic competitor is Elizabeth Warren.  Warren has stated she is not running and is in 6th overall at 2%.

The top Republican is Jeb Bush at 11.2%.  He has nearly twice the likelihood as his closest competitor Marco Rubio at 5.4%.  Scott Walker is 4th place overall at 4.3%.

How have the probabilities changed over the last year?

Clinton has not moved much over the last year.  She has been in first place every week and has actually improved her probability slightly from 39.9% to 41.8%.

Marco Rubio was the second place candidate last May at 4.7%.  Although he has dropped to 3rd place, his probability has increased.

Bush was in 4th place last May at 3.5% and has improved dramatically coming in this week at 11.2%.

Who are the other big movers?

Moves up:

-Scott Walker has moved from 10th to 4th overall

-John Kasich from 22nd to 9th

– Mike Huckabee from 22nd to 15th

– Jim Webb from 31st to 17th

Moves down:

-Chris Christie from tied for 2nd to 7th

– Paul Ryan from 4th to to 21st

-Bobby Jindal from 9th to 14th

-Mark Warner from 10th to 24th

-Rick Perry from 10th to 33rd

– Tim Pawlenty and Scott Brown from 10th to no odds

Here is a full list of odds.  I have highlighted the candidates who have declared (green) and those who have announced they will not run (red)

May 16 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

 

Views – 942

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