Updated Weekly Odds: Clinton Increases Gap; Sanders and Trump Stay Hot; Fiorina, Santorum Struggling

Hillary Clinton improved for the second straight week with her odds from 42.6% to 43.5%.  That is the highest she has been for about a year and her largest lead over Jeb Bush in 6 months.

Bernie Sanders had the second largest increase moving from 2.7% to 3.2%.  Back on 6/6 Sanders was only registering 0.7% in 21st place. He is now the 5th leading candidate.

Donald Trump also continued his hot streak moving from 14th place to 12th place jumping over Ben Carson and John Kasich.

Mike Huckabee had a good week moving from 16th to 13th place, his highest since April.

Among the declared candidates, Lincoln Chafee (47th) and George Pataki (38th) have not been able to gain any traction.  Carly Fiorina (32nd) and Rick Santorum (30th) are moving in that direction each having dropped a few spots this week.  Both were recently in the top 25.

Here is the full list of candidates:

July 11 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 975

Updated Odds: Clinton, Bush with Big Gains; Rubio Slips; Sanders in Top 5; Trump, Jindal Rise; Christie, Webb Enter Race

Hillary Clinton had a good week as she rose 0.7% to 42.6%, the highest she has been since August 2014.

He closest competitor Jeb Bush also had a good week improving by 0.5% to 12.5%.  That is the highest Bush has been.  Bush’s rise seemed to come at the expense of Marco Rubio who remains in 3rd but is down from 6.3% to 5.9%.

Bernie Sanders continues his hot streak, as he improves by 0.8% to 2.7%.  This was enough for him to get into the top 5, leap frogging Rand Paul. (Sanders added to graph of top 10 see link below)

Donald Trump continued to make headlines and move up polls which helped him move from 18th place to 14th place.

Bobby Jindal also had a good week moving from 25th place to 21st place. Jindal had been sliding recently.  This is the highest he has been since end of May.

There were two new entries in the race.  Chris Christie finally declared.  That did not move him in the standings, as he remained in 10th place.  Christie was once the front runner for the Republican nomination before “Bridgegate” hit.   He was as high as 5th overall in February.

Jim Webb declared and actually dropped in the standings as he was jumped over by Trump.  Webb is in 17th place overall.  Webb has been between 14th and 20th since March.

Here is the full list

July 4 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 943

Updated Weekly Odds: Bush, Rubio, and Sanders Continue Hot Streak; Jindal Enters Race; Clinton Steady

Hillary Clinton extended her streak of being between 41% and 42% probability of winning to 11 weeks.  She is more than three times more likely to win the presidency than her next competitor.

Jeb Bush has been hot the last two weeks moving from 10.8% to 11.9%.  Although he has shrunk the gap with Clinton to 30%, it has been at the expense of candidates seen less and less likely to run.

After dropping slightly last week as a result of Bush’s announcement, Marco Rubio resumed his hot streak moving from 6.1% to 6.3%.  His odds have increased nearly 50% since April.

The hottest candidate continues to be Bernie Sanders. Since May 30th, he has moved from 27th place to this week’s current 6th place. To get there he leapfrogged Elizabeth Warren to become the primary challenger to Clinton on the Democratic side.

It was Bobby Jindal’s turn to enter the race this week.  The announcement did not move his odds at all.  Just like last week, he is at 0.6% and in 25th place.  Jindal was once considered one of the top candidates, peaking at 9th place in July of 2014.

Here is a list of all the candidates:

June 27 2015 pres trend

 

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

Views – 906

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