The biggest moves in the New Hampshire Primary were by Marco Rubio and Donald Trump.

Marco Rubio was coming in on a high post Iowa.  Having finished 3rd and seen as the mainstream candidate.  In one week his odds rose from 8.2% to 19.7% and he was in second place.  That all came crashing down this week as he dropped all the way down to 6.7% as he finished 5th behind other mainstream candidates likes Kasich and Bush.  He drops from having the highest Republican odds to fourth overall.  The 6.7% is his lowest since end of September.

Donald Trump had the mirror image.  After dropping last week from 16.3% to 6.9%, he jump back to 14% and claims back his position as the odds on favorite for the Republican nomination.

The two other big movers were Jeb Bush and John Kasich.

Bush jumped from 1.4% to 3.7% and fifth place overall. He is at his highest odds since the end of October.

By finishing second, Kasich breathed some life into his campaign. He jumped from 0.4% to 1.3% which allowed him to jump non-candidates Joe Biden and Mitt Romney for 8th place.  This is the highest he has been since mid October.

Ted Cruz’s third place finish increased his odds slightly from 3.4% to 3.6% but that wasn’t enough to stop Bush from jumping over him.

As a result of the primary Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie dropped out.

On the Democratic side, Sanders’ big win didn’t result in a big  movement in the odds.  Hillary Clinton continued to have a big lead.  She improved 1% to 58.8%. Bernie Sanders also improved 1% to 7.7%.  One can argue Bernie Sanders move is more impressive since it’s off a 6.7% base.  He is a the highest percentage he has been in the entire race.

Michael Bloomberg continued to gain momentum.  He jumped 1% to 2.3%. That is the highest he has been.  His seventh place standing is higher than Kasich.

Here are the full odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

Views – 906

A lot of movement post the Iowa Caucus.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton dropped by 1.2% to 57.8%. These are her lowest odds since October.

Oddly enough her closest competitors also dropped with Bernie Sanders dropping 0.6% to 6.7%.  That still leaves him in 4th place overall.  Martin O’Malley dropped out of the race and out of the odds.

On the Republican side, even though Marco Rubio finished third, he had the single biggest increase of any candidate for any week more than doubling his odds from 8.2% to 19.7%.  He jumps over Donald Trump with a firm hold on second place.

Donald Trump saw the biggest drop of anyone going from 16.3% to 6.9%.  This is the lowest he has been since the end of November. He is in third place just ahead of Bernie Sanders.

Ted Cruz wins the Caucus but only jumped 1.1% to 3.4%.  The win does end a streak of dropping the previous 5 weeks.

Jeb Bush had a disappointing caucus and dropped by 0.9% to 1.4%.  This is the lowest he has been in the race. He is in 6th place overall.

Last week’s speculation about Michael Bloomberg caused him to jump to 7th place.  He dropped 0.4% to 1.3%.

Two candidates that came back into the picture are Joe Biden and Mitt Romney.  Biden came back at 0.9% which was good enough for 8th place as some Democrats make another attempt at getting Biden to run.

Romney came in at 0.2% which was enough for 11th place. This could be a play at the possibility of no one winning the electoral college.  Romney would have a shot if it was up to Congress.

Here are the full odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 841

A few days before the Iowa caucus has Hillary Clinton dropping slightly from 59.7% to 59%.  She holds a solid lead, although this is the lowest she has been since the end of October, and the smallest lead over second place since August.

The major reason for Clinton’s shrinking lead is the momentum that Donald Trump has.  He gains another 0.9% to 16.3%. This is the seventh straight week of increases.  At the start of that streak he was only at 0.9%.

Trump’s gain comes at the expense of Ted Cruz who drops 0.7% to 2.4%.  He has now dropped for five straight weeks and is at his lowest since the middle of November.

Speculation that Bloomberg might run has catapulted him to seventh place.  He was up by 1.2% to 1.6%.  This is the highest he has been.

One peculiar jump was from Paul Ryan.  He jumped from 15th place to 10th place improving from 0.2% to 0.3%.  Perhaps that is a play on Bloomberg jumping in resulting in no one winning the electoral college and sending it to a vote in the house.

Here are the full odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 907