September 2014 New Hampshire Poll: Rand Paul and Hillary Clinton Leading

A new CNN Poll shows Rand Paul and Hillary Clinton leading for the nomination for their respective parties.

On the Republican side, Rand Paul leads at 15% followed by Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan at 10% and Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee at 9%.

Below are the total results with how the candidates fared in a July poll by Marist in parenthesis

Paul 15% (14%)
Bush 10% (10%)
Ryan 10% (7%)
Christie 9% (13%)
Huckabee 9%
Perry 7% (5%)
Rubio 7% (7%)
Walker 7%  (6%)
Cruz 6% (9%)
Jindal 3% (4%)
Santorum 3% (3%)

In comparing the results, Paul is holding steady at the lead with Bush a solid #2.  Ryan seems to have made up the most space while Christie and Cruz have slipped the most.  Huckabee was not even an option on the last poll, and finishes tied for 4th.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads 60% over Elizabeth Warren at 11% and Joe Biden at 8%.   Sanders is a surprisingly strong 4th place at 7%.

Clinton 60%
Warren 11%
Biden 8%
Sanders 7%
Patrick 4%
Cuomo 1%
O’Malley 1%

The July poll only asked about Clinton and Biden, and in that one Clinton got 74% and Biden got 18%.  These two numbers are obviously inflated by only having two choices.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

 For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 457

September Florida Poll

Because of the large number of electoral votes, and the fact that the margin was less than 1% in 2012, Florida will be one of the more important battles in the 2016 presidential elections.

A  poll was released by the Public Policy Polling for September that included some matchups of Hillary Clinton vs. different GOP candidates.

Clinton wins in all headed to head matchups with Jeb Bush being the closest.  The same poll was taken in July for some of these candidates.  Comparing the results of the two polls shows Clinton’s lead shrinking against Bush, Christie, and Rubio.  Here are the results.

Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 44% (47%-41% July)

Clinton 46% Chris Christie 38% (49%-38% in July)

Clinton 51% Ted Cruz 36%

Clinton 49% Mike Huckabee 40%

Clinton 48% Rand Paul 40% (46%-42% in July)

Clinton 49% and Marco Rubio 42% (53%-39% in July)

Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney 50.0% to 49.1% in Florida in 2012.

More details here including a poll on the Florida Governor race.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

 For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 444

Updated Odds – Steady at the Top. Romney and Perry slipping

Hillary Clinton continued to come back to the pack but is still the heavy favorite.  Her probability is now at 36.8%, down from a peak on 8/2 of 46.4%.  That is still well ahead of the #2 candidate Marco Rubio at 4.6%.

Two big moves down on the Republican side are Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.

Mitt Romney moves from as high as 9th place on 8/30 down to 17th place this week, perhaps due to his insistence in the past week that he will not run.  His probability is now down to 1.1%

Rick Perry has seen the biggest fall from grace dropping all the way down to 38th place after peaking at 4th place on 8/2 (before indictment and after he deployed the national guard for the border crisis).    Odds for Perry winning vary widely from as low as 33 to 1 as high as 150 to 1.

For the Democrats Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden continue to be the top competitors to Hillary Clinton coming in at 6th and 7th overall.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 488

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