Updated Weekly Odds: Clinton and Trump Steady at the Top; Kasich Drops and Sanders Improves

Hillary Clinton’s continued to lead at 63.2%, flat to the prior week.

Her closest competitor continues to be Donald Trump.  He had a slight drop from 23.4% to 23%.

The biggest mover of the week was Bernie Sanders who improved from 3.6% to 4.8%.  The what enough to get him past the dropping John Kasich for third overall.

John Kasich had the biggest drop from 3.8% to 2.8%. That was enough to have him fall from 3rd overall to 5th overall.

Ted Cruz had a slight improvement from 3.0% to 3.3%.  That was enough to have him pass John Kasich for 4th.

Here are the full odds:

March 26 2016 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 887

Updated Weekly Odds: Rubio out; Clinton Opens up Lead over Sanders; Kasich Passes Cruz

Hillary Clinton continued to strengthen her lead.  She improved from 58% to 63.2%.  This is her third straight increase and the highest she has been since early January.

Donald Trump improved slightly from 22.7% to 23.4%.  He has been the clear leader the last 4 weeks at close to 25%.

John Kasich’s Ohio win meant that he had the biggest move of the week.  He is now clearly the “establishment” candidate.  He jumps into third place up from 3.5% to 3.8%.  He was in 5th place last week behind both Sanders and Cruz and 8th place three weeks ago behind the likes of Rubio and Bloomberg.

Bernie Sanders suffered the biggest loss of any candidate as his odds dropped from 6.7% to 3.6%.   This week was the largest gap between Clinton and Sanders since early January.

Ted Cruz was one of the big Republican losers on the week.  He dropped from 4.3% to 3.0% largely due to Kasich winning Ohio and keeping this a three man race.

The biggest loser of the week was Marco Rubio whose campaign ended with his loss in his home state of Florida.  Rubio dropped from 2.0% to out of the odds as he suspended his campaign.   For a long time late last year, Rubio was considered the top Republican candidate.  He peaked at 19.7% in early February (after the Iowa caucus where Trump struggled and Rubio briefly jumped to 2nd).

The non candidates continue to show some action.  Joe Biden is up for the third straight week at 1.5% from 1.3%.

He is followed by Paul  Ryan who is up to 0.9% from 0.8%. He has now been up for 4 straight weeks.

Mitt Romney was flat at 0.7%.

Here are the odds:

March 19 2016 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 887

Updated Weekly Odds: Rubio Continues Sharp Decline; Sanders and Cruz Rebound; Kasich at a New High

Hillary Clinton continues to lead at 58% up from 57% last week.  She has been up the last two weeks.

Bernie Sanders follows rebounds from a bad week.  He jumps from 3.5% to 6.7%.  He was at 6.4% two weeks ago.

Donald Trump continues to be far and away the Republican front runner but dropped from 23.9% to 22.7%, his lowest in three weeks.

Marco Rubio seems to be on life support prior to the Florida vote.  He drops from 6% to 2%.  Two weeks ago Rubio was at 11.9%.  He drops from 3rd place to 6th place.

The beneficiaries for Rubio’s drops are Ted Cruz and John Kasich.  Ted Cruz improves from 2.6% to 4.3%.  This is the highest he has been in two months.

John Kasich improves from 2.5% to 3.5%.  This is the highest he has been in this contest.  He was at less than 1% just two weeks ago.

Michael Bloomberg announced he was not running.  Bloomberg got as high as 5th place two weeks ago as speculation he was running peaked.

Here are the full odds:

March 12 2016 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 862

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