The odds remained unchanged this week so I thought I’d look at the candidates with the biggest changes in odds over the last 2 months. For the full set of odds checkout my site
Jeb Bush +1.0% (3.5% to 4.5%)
Hillary Clinton +0.9% (39.9% to 40.8%)
Rick Perry +0.8% (1.4% to 2.2%)
Mitt Romney +0.5% (0.9% to 1.3%)
Chris Christie -1.3% (4.7% to 3.4%)
Eric Cantor -0.5% (0.9% to 0.4%)
Rand Paul -0.4% (3.5% to 3.1%)
Joe Biden -0.4% (2.3% to 1.9%)
There have been two additions to the odds in the last two months: Deval Patrick and Ben Carson, but both have very long odds. 250 to 1 odds and a 0.3% probability.
For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls
For updates follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds
Views – 679
New Hampshire Poll of potential Republican electorate shows Rand Paul leading (14%) followed by Chris Christie (13%), Jeb Bush (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%). Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio tied for 5th at 7%.
Interestingly, Marco Rubio moves from fifth to first for the question “Who is your second choice”
Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 74/18
Only Rand Paul is within the margin of error in a head to head contest with Clinton (46/43)
Christie, Bush, and Rubio are close behind losing by a margin of 47/42 to Clinton.
Obama beat Romney 52/46 in New Hampshire in 2012
Views – 724
Iowa Poll of potential Republican electorate shows a tie between Jeb Bush and Rand Paul (12%) followed by Paul Ryan (11%), Rick Santorum (9%), Chris Christie (8%), and a three way tie for 6th of Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio (7%).
Interestingly, Rick Santorum moves from fourth to second for the question “Who is your second choice”
Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 70/20
Three Republican candidates are within the margin of error in a head to head battle with Clinton:
Clinton vs Paul 45/45
Clinton vs. Christie 44/43
Clinton vs. Bush 46/42
Obama beat Romney 52/46 in Iowa in 2012
Views – 719