Donald Trump’s odds continued to drop moving from 2.61X to 2.65X. He has now dropped for five straight weeks and his odds are their lowest since June.
The recent drops appear to have given life to the odds of Republican alternatives, as a group of them jumped all of a sudden including:
Mike Pence from 25.7X to 23.5X
Paul Ryan from 83.2X to 78.2X
Mitt Romney from 93.3X to 80.8X
Marco Rubio from 96.4X to 94.1X
Scott Walker from 101.2X to 97.8X
Ted Cruz from 115.3X to 110.9X
Tom Cotton from 115.4X to 73.9X
Ben Sasse from 124.3X to 119.5X
Beto O’Rourke has been the hottest name in the betting odds, and that has seemed to translate to mainstream political pundits, as CNN ranks him second among Democrats for 2020. His odds improved again this time from 8.22X to 7.71 times. That was enough to have him jump over Kamala Harris to become the odds favorite for Democrats.
The person that has seen the biggest drop recently has been Elizabeth Warren. In a recent poll, she has dropped to 7th overall for the Democrats. Her odds dropped again this week from 18.1X to 20.1X. That dropped her to 5th overall in odds for the Democrats. She was in 2nd place among the Democrats and at 11.5X merely seven weeks ago.
After a small drop the prior week, Donald Trump’s odds rebounded from 2.79X to 2.77X, which is the same as two weeks ago and the highest since the middle of March ’17. They are still a bit away from the 2.41X high achieved on 1/7/17.
Bernie Sanders’ odds have been rising quietly over the last 5 weeks. This week they increased from 12.5X to 11.9X. That was enough for him to jump Kamala Harris (12.4X) for second place overall. Harris had held that spot for four weeks after jumping over Elizabeth Warren.
Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week coming in at 3.28X. He remains more than three times more likely to win the presidency as any candidate, although his odds have fallen over the last year. At this time last year, Trump was at 2.58X, or 21% more likely.
The big mover on the week was once again Kirsten Gillibrand. The Senator from NY called for the President to resign this week and the President bit the bait and took her on. That increased her profile once again and likewise her odds. This week she improved from 45.8X to 36.4X. That moved her from 18th place to 12th place.
Marco Rubio stated he will not support the tax bill without changes to the child credit. Many see this as a play to improve his odds for 2020. His odds improved from 47.1X to 42.6X. That moved him from 20th place to 19th place (4th among Republicans).
