Category Archives: ORourke 2020

No change in Trump’s Odds; Warren drops for 3rd week in a row as momentum for Buttigieg and Sanders continues; One time leaders struggle as Beto drops out and Kamala conserves cash

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.25X. They have been very resilient the last 4 weeks showing no impact from a possible impeachment. The odds were at 2.24X three weeks ago. Trump’s odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved slightly from 44.1% to 44.2% as their combined odds dropped from 1.77X to 1.78X driven by Elizabeth Warren.

Warren’s odds dropped for a third straight week. Her odds on the week came in at 4.17X, down from last week’s 3.82X and 3.32X in mid October. These are her lowest odds in 6 weeks. Her odds are following the same trend as other front-runners before her. She is the fifth Democratic leader in just 2019 (Kamala Harris twice, Biden, and Sanders)

The two movers up this week are Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.

Sanders improved from 14.3X to 12.8X. His odds have rebounded from the heart attack lows of 22.1X four weeks ago. Sanders seems to have the highest credibility among young liberals, and AOC campaigning in Iowa for him will only reinforce that.

Pete Buttigieg seems to be benefiting with his pitch as the only Democratic centrist with any kind of money left. Biden might be leading, but he may be in a cash crunch. Buttigieg’s odds improved from 16.4X to 14.3X. These are his best odds since June. He has now improved in 5 straight weeks.

Two once promising candidates continued to see their odds drop.

Beto O’Rourke dropped out on Friday, and his odds tanked moving from 138X to 212X. O’Rourke peaked around Christmas of 2018 when his odds were around 7.7X. He was briefly the Democratic leader for three weeks in December 2018.

Kamala Harris also once held the Democratic lead, and has seen her odds drop. Her odds dropped from 57.7X to 61.9X as word came out she had cut her staff to conserve cash. This is yet another odds low for her. She led the Democratic field as recently as end of July.

Here are the odds for all candidates with better than 250X odds and the trend of the top candidates:

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Trump’s odds see small decline; Warren reaches another new high; Clinton odds continue to rise as both Trump and Clinton comment on a possible rematch; Rep. alternatives now higher than former Dem. frontrunners

Donald’s Trump’s odds saw another small decline, this week from 2.20X to 2.24X. This is the third straight decline and the lowest odds since mid April. His odds against the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 44.7% as their odds also dropped, from 1.78X to 1.81X.

Movements this week were a continuation of last week:

  • Elizabeth Warren remained the hottest name reaching yet another new high for anyone not named Trump. She improved from 3.45X to 3.32X.
  • For a second straight week Bernie Sanders odds tanked, with continued concerns over the heart attack. He drops from 17.9X last week to 22.1X this week. These are his lowest odds in 2 1/2 years. He was at 14.3X, but already declining, two weeks ago prior to the heart attack.
  • Clinton’s odds continued to rise jumping from 39.5X to 25.2X, their highest since August 2017. This is the 9th straight week of increases for Clinton and 5th straight week of large improvements. She was at 90.0X at the start of September. Both Trump and Clinton made comments this week about a possible rematch.
  • Republican alternatives to Trump also saw jumps with Pence improving from 48.9X to 37.3X, Haley from 53.0X to 41.9X, and Romney from 125.9X to 98.0X.

The jumps from Clinton and Trump Republican alternatives are causing some interesting distortions in relative odds. For example:

  • Clinton now has higher odds (25.2X) than Pete Buttigieg (26.4X)
  • Mike Pence has higher odds (37.3X) than Kamala Harris (38.1X)
  • Mitt Romney has higher odds (98.0X) than Beto O’Rourke (109.2X)

Here are the odds of all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates:

For updates follow us on Twitter

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Donald Trump’s odds see small dip, still close to all time high; Warren continues to be hottest name while Sanders continue to benefit from debate; Harris and Buttigieg continue recent cold streak

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small dip from 1.90X to 1.91X. That is still the 2nd highest he has been after last week’s number. His odds against the top 5 Democrats remained basically 50%/50% as they also dropped from 1.90X to 1.92X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the hottest name. She improved from 7.98X to 7.53X. She has now improved in 15 of the last 16 weeks. This is another new high for Warren, and widens the formerly narrow gap she had over Kamala Harris. She is quickly making herself the alternative to Biden for the Democrats.

Bernie Sander’s continued to ride the wave after the second debate. He was up from 14.2X to 12.9X. The debate ended a downward trend for the Vermont Senator. This is his highest point in 6 weeks.

On the other end of the spectrum was Kamala Harris. Her odds dropped from 8.04X to 8.88X. She has now dropped for four straight weeks. She was at 5.57X and in 4th place the middle of July. She became the first Democrat to buy some air time in Iowa, a key early voting state.

Another candidate drifting down is Pete Buttigieg. He dropped from 18.9X to 20.9X, and has now dropped for 7 straight weeks. He was at 12.4 on 6/22. This is his lowest point since around mid March.

The one cold candidate that reversed his trend, at least for this week, is Beto O’ Rourke. After establishing an all time low last week of 83.5X (He started at 54.7X in August 2018), O’Rourke saw an increase to 65.6X, basically where he was just two weeks ago, prior to the debate. This may be a result of a higher profile with the shootings in El Paso. We’ll see next week.

Here is a list of all the candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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