Category Archives: Klobuchar 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds reach a new high on eve of Senate trial; Biden’s odds improve as friction between Warren and Sanders increases; Bloomberg odds climb along with him catching Trump’s attention

Donald Trump’s Odds continued climbing on the eve of the Senate Impeachment trial, jumping this week from 1.82X to 1.72X. another new high, the third in a row. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved to 54.3% over last week’s 52.1% as their combined odds dropped from 1.98X to 2.05X.

The Democrats held their 7th debate, and based on the odds, the person that benefited the most is Joe Biden. It seems Democrats that were betting on him imploding are coming to grips he will not. His odds improved from 5.79X to 5.60X, his second highest odds since July (highest two weeks ago at 5.51X)

The main story before and during the debate is the friction between Sanders and Warren. The combination of the debate and the controversy had very little impact on Sanders’ odds. He had a small drop from 6.41X (his high for this cycle) to 6.47X. Warren on the other hand continued to drop, this week from 17.3X to 20.5X. her lowest since June.

Warren wasn’t the only Democrat to see a big drop on the week. Buttigieg dropped from 21.5X to 31.2X, his lowest since March 2019. Amy Klobuchar dropped from 67.3X to 82.7X, her lowest in the last 9 weeks.

Michael Bloomberg didn’t participate in the debate, but the fact that he’s now on Trump’s radar speaks to the potential of his candidacy being problematic to Trump. His odds improved from 13.8X to 13.4X another new high.

Below are how the odds changed for the debate participants, a trend of the top candidates, and the overall odds of the top 25:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odd’s see small drop, still near highs; Klobuchar maintains momentum from debate; Biden widens lead over rivals; Buttigieg with 3rd big drop in a row

Donald Trump’s odds dropped slightly this week from 1.86X to 1.88X, ending a 5 week streak of improvements. Even with the drop, this is still trump’s second highest week since the 2016 elections. His odds against the top 5 Democrats saw a similar decline dropping from 52.3% to 52.0% as their combined odds improved from 2.04X to 2.03X.

Joe Biden continued to solidify his odds for the Democratic nomination, improving from 6.19X to 5.98X. There are his highest odds in 6 months. It will be interesting to see if he once again becomes the target of his opponents in the next debate. The target shifts with each debate to the hottest name at the moment with Buttigieg being the last one, and Warren being the previous.

Speaking of Buttigieg, the candidate continued his recent declines, dropping this week from 14X to 15.3X. This is his lowest since the end of October. The drop was his third in a row and started after a fast surge brought him under scrutiny.

Amy Klobuchar had the largest improvement of the week, with her odds moving from 55.3X to 48.5X. She has now improved nine weeks in a row and is her best odds since mid April. She’s currently riding her debate momentum right into Iowa.

A trend of the top candidates:

A list of all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Gabbard 2020, Haley 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds reach new highs as Articles of Impeachment pass the House; Democratic debate results in wins for Biden, Klobuchar, and Sanders and setbacks for Buttigieg and Warren

Trump’s Odds jumped to an all-time high this week with the House passing the Articles of Impeachment. This may be due to the fact that no unexpected revelations came out, and now Trump can look to having the process move to a “homecourt” game in the Senate. The odds rose from 2.00X to 1.86X. Previous high was 1.90X in August 2019. That was reached after Mueller made his testimony to Congress. Trump’s odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved from 49.8% to 52.3% as their collective odds dropped from 1.99X to 2.04X.

Speaking of the Democrats, the day after the Articles of Impeachment were handed down, the Democrats, held their 6th debate with the smallest field so far of 7 candidates. Based on surveys before and after the debate, Joe Biden seemed to come away the winner. The odds seem to reflect this as he had the biggest improvement in odds from 6.7X to 6.2X, his best odds since June.

According to the same survey, Pete Buttigieg did the worst. Every debate seems to have the hot candidate in the cross-hairs of the rest of the field. This time Buttigieg took the incoming fire, and he managed to be the only one who’s net favorability fell, according to the survey. He also had the biggest drop in odds from 10.6X to 14.0X. This dropped him from 4th place to 5th place overall, as Warren, whose odds also slipped from 11.4X to 12.2X, managed to pass him by. These are the lowest odds Buttigieg has had in 7 weeks.

Some other interesting movements:

  • Amy Klobuchar had a good debate and her odds jumped from 58.3X to 55.3X, her best odds since May. This allowed her to jump into 10th place overall.
  • Elizabeth Warren’s odds decreased for the 10th straight week. They dropped this week from 11.4X to 12.2X. This is the lowest she’s been since June.
  • The improvement in Trump odds meant other Republicans saw a big drop. Mike Pence dropped from 44.5X to 54.5X, his highest since the end of September.
  • Nikki Haley was the other Republican to see a drop from 52.5X to 71.4X, which is her lowest since the same week as Pence.
  • Tulsi Gabbard, who did not qualify for the debate, saw her odds drop from 75.1X to 94.6X. She was the only Democrat not to vote for the impeachment. She voted “Present”.

Here is an odds scoreboard of how the odds changed due to the debate:

A trend of the top 5 candidates:

Odds of all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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