Category Archives: Klobuchar 2020

Trump’s odds flat to last week; Winners from 4th debate include Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren; Sanders “resets” campaign and gets AOC endorsement; Romney and Bloomberg with big improvements

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.24X, about 15% lower than the 1.90X high set beginning of August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats dropped to 43.9% from 44.8%. This as a result of the top 5 Democrats improving their combined odds from 1.81X to 1.75X.

The Democrats had their 4th debate and based on the odds here’s the big winners:

Here are how to odds moved this week for all who were involved in the debate:

Hillary Clinton’s streak of 9 straight weeks of improvements finally came to an end as she dropped from 25.2X to 31.5X. That is still the highest of any non candidate.

Mitt Romney saw another jump in odds as he stepped up his talk against Trump’s Syria policy. The odds moved from 98.0X to 80.6X, his highest since January.

Michael Bloomberg’s odds nearly doubled from 197.4X to 107.7X as reports came out he is looking into possibly entering if Biden falters. These are his highest odds since May.

Here are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates

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Second Democratic debate leads to change in leadership as Harris stumbles and Biden doesn’t. Gabbard, Booker, and Williamson among the winners from debate. Warren continues streak while Sanders stops cold streak. Trump registers another new odds high.

Donald Trump’s Odds continued to be on a roll reaching a new high. The odds improved from last week’s all time high of 1.92X to this week’s 1.90X. He is still in a dead heat however with the top 5 Democrats which also improved from 1.92X to 1.90X combined.

Speaking of the Democrats, the second debate caused a lot of changes in the odds.

The first debate’s winner was undoubtedly Kamala Harris. It seems she is the biggest loser of the second debate. She was attacked on her healthcare plan and her record as a prosecutor. Her odds dropped from 6.3X and second place last week, to 8.0X and 4th place. Her odds are still ahead of where she was prior to the first debate (14X) and in line where she was at right after the first debate (7.5X).

The biggest winner was last debate’s biggest loser, Joe Biden. Unlike last debate, he didn’t stumble, and with Harris’ stumbles, that was enough to regain the lead. His odds jumped from 8.3X to 6.5X. He is once again the favorite for the Democrats. Biden is still behind the 5.5X he was at prior to the first debate and his all time high of 5.2X in early June.

Elizabeth Warren was another winner. She and Bernie Sanders were the liberals on their night against the more moderate candidates. They didn’t take shots at each other and that seemed to help. She continued her hot streak and is now up in 14 of the last 15 weeks. She improved from 8.4X to 8.0X, a new all time high. She was able to move slightly ahead of Harris for 3rd place overall.

Like Warren, Bernie Sanders also improved ending a 14 weeks steak of drops. He improved from 16.0X to 14.2X. He remained in 5th place.

Other winners included:

Aside from Kamala Harris, other losers included:

  • Beto O’ Rourke who dropped from 63.4X to 83.5X (9th place to 11th place). These are his lowest odds since making his debut after the viral video back in August 2018. He had a “subdued” performance without stumbles. That wasn’t enough.
  • Amy Klobuchar who dropped from 74.3X to 93.2X. (11th place to 12th place) She is another candidate at her all time lows. Despite the lack of momentum, she managed to qualify for the next set of debates.

Here are all of the candidates that participated in the debate and their odds last week and this week:

Here are the full odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot

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Trump’s Odds improve after Mueller testimony; Warren continues to be hottest name; Biden’s favorable polls don’t move his odds; Improvements for Klobuchar and Bullock: could they breakout in the debate?

Donald Trump’s odds saw a jump a few days after the Mueller testimony. They rose from last week’s 1.98X to 1.92X. Although that seems minimal, fact is his odds have been improving almost every week of the last 6 months, and this week’s improvement is more than the improvement of the prior 8 weeks combined. He is now tied from an odds perspective with the top 5 Democratic candidates who saw their combined odds drop from 1.89X to 1.92X.

The hottest name continued to be Elizabeth Warren. Her odds improved from last week’s 8.88X to 8.36X, another new high. She has now improved in 13 of the last 14 weeks and is within striking distance of Joe Biden’s odds.

Speaking of Biden, favorable polls released showed there is a gap between how the Democratic base and oddsmakers feel about him vs. the general public. One poll from Fox News showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points head to head while other Democrats were tied with the President. Despite the polls, his saw a light drop this week from 8.19X to 8.26X. He is still behind Kamala Harris at 6.26X. Harris has now dropped the last two weeks from 5.57X, her all time high.

Two names that showed signs of life from an odds perspective and who need to breakout at this week’s upcoming debates are Amy Klobuchar and Steve bullock. Klobuchar was a breakout candidate prior to the last debate, when she was at 68X but didn’t stand out, and she dropped to 84X after. She has improved every week since then and is now back to 74X. Steve Bullock remains an extreme long shot and was not even at the last debate. He has improved the last three weeks from 213X to the current 178X. He is one of the more centrist candidates and has had a hard time breaking out.

Here are the 41 candidates with better than 200 to 1 shot

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