Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.25X. They have been very resilient the last 4 weeks showing no impact from a possible impeachment. The odds were at 2.24X three weeks ago. Trump’s odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved slightly from 44.1% to 44.2% as their combined odds dropped from 1.77X to 1.78X driven by Elizabeth Warren.
Warren’s odds dropped for a third straight week. Her odds on the week came in at 4.17X, down from last week’s 3.82X and 3.32X in mid October. These are her lowest odds in 6 weeks. Her odds are following the same trend as other front-runners before her. She is the fifth Democratic leader in just 2019 (Kamala Harris twice, Biden, and Sanders)
The two movers up this week are Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.
Pete Buttigieg seems to be benefiting with his pitch as the only Democratic centrist with any kind of money left. Biden might be leading, but he may be in a cash crunch. Buttigieg’s odds improved from 16.4X to 14.3X. These are his best odds since June. He has now improved in 5 straight weeks.
Two once promising candidates continued to see their odds drop.
Beto O’Rourke dropped out on Friday, and his odds tanked moving from 138X to 212X. O’Rourke peaked around Christmas of 2018 when his odds were around 7.7X. He was briefly the Democratic leader for three weeks in December 2018.
Kamala Harris also once held the Democratic lead, and has seen her odds drop. Her odds dropped from 57.7X to 61.9X as word came out she had cut her staff to conserve cash. This is yet another odds low for her. She led the Democratic field as recently as end of July.
Here are the odds for all candidates with better than 250X odds and the trend of the top candidates:
Another week of little change for Trump’s reelection odds, which given the impeachment inquiry headlines, is rather remarkable. The odds are currently at 2.25X, slightly below last week’s 2.24X. Taking a step back, these are his lowest odds since mid April, but much better than his cycle low of 3.46X in September 2017. The odds for the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 1.77X, meaning Trump’s odds against them dropped slightly from 44.2% to 44.1%.
The big move in odds that started a bit last week, and grew this week, seems to be a reversal of a long positive trend for Warren. Her odds had seen continuous improvement for 6 months, but have now been lower for two straight weeks. This week, the odds dropped from 3.37X to 3.82X, her lowest in 5 weeks. It seems much of the fire that Biden has been taking has now turned towards Warren given her front-runner status.
Tulsi Gabbard has had an eventful week , including taking on Clinton, announcing she is not running for reelection for Congress, and going on Fox News to discuss her displeasure with closed door Democratic hearings. Her odds shot up from 88.7X to 58.9X, a 50% increase and her highest in 9 weeks. She is basically now tied with once Democratic favorite and now fallen star Kamala Harris who dropped from 46.5X to 57.7X. This is another all time low for Harris.
Here are the odds for candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the leaders
Donald’s Trump’s odds saw another small decline, this week from 2.20X to 2.24X. This is the third straight decline and the lowest odds since mid April. His odds against the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 44.7% as their odds also dropped, from 1.78X to 1.81X.
Movements this week were a continuation of last week:
Elizabeth Warren remained the hottest name reaching yet another new high for anyone not named Trump. She improved from 3.45X to 3.32X.
For a second straight week Bernie Sanders odds tanked, with continued concerns over the heart attack. He drops from 17.9X last week to 22.1X this week. These are his lowest odds in 2 1/2 years. He was at 14.3X, but already declining, two weeks ago prior to the heart attack.
Clinton’s odds continued to rise jumping from 39.5X to 25.2X, their highest since August 2017. This is the 9th straight week of increases for Clinton and 5th straight week of large improvements. She was at 90.0X at the start of September. Both Trump and Clinton made comments this week about a possible rematch.
Republican alternatives to Trump also saw jumps with Pence improving from 48.9X to 37.3X, Haley from 53.0X to 41.9X, and Romney from 125.9X to 98.0X.
The jumps from Clinton and Trump Republican alternatives are causing some interesting distortions in relative odds. For example:
Clinton now has higher odds (25.2X) than Pete Buttigieg (26.4X)
Mike Pence has higher odds (37.3X) than Kamala Harris (38.1X)
Mitt Romney has higher odds (98.0X) than Beto O’Rourke (109.2X)
Here are the odds of all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates: