Donald Trumps’ odds saw their first improvement in nine weeks, inching up from 2.29X to 2.28X. These odds are still slightly lower than two weeks ago at 2.27X and around 20% from the all time high of 1.90X achieved in August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved by a wider margin from 44.3% to 45.5%. The top 5 Democrats combined dropped from 1.82X to 1.90X as a result of a drop in Warren’s odds.
The fifth Democratic debate took place and there is a disagreement between what the pundits think and what the odds show when it comes to Warren and Biden. Many media outlets, like Vox , CNN, and NYT have Warren outperforming Biden. The odds on the other hand, show a sharp drop for Warren. Her odds decreased from 5.32X to 7.32X, over a 25% drop. This is her lowest since the middle of August. Although she had the biggest drop in this debate, Warren is still up the most since the beginning of the debates.
Joe Biden’s odds saw a small improvement, faring much better than what the media thought of him. His odds improved from 7.22X to 6.88X. This small increase along with Warren’s fall was enough to bump him back up to the favorite. These are his best odds since the middle of September.
There seems to be two big winners from the debate. Pete Buttigieg came out of the debate with his recent momentum intact. He improved from 10.3X to 8.9X, his second all time high in a row.
The biggest winner, at least from an improvement in odds perspective, was Amy Klobuchar. Her odds rose 50% from 94.6X to 62.8X. She jumped over Gabbard and Harris into 11th place overall.
Here are the big winner and losers from this debate as well as since the start of debate season:
Here are the odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates:
Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.25X. They have been very resilient the last 4 weeks showing no impact from a possible impeachment. The odds were at 2.24X three weeks ago. Trump’s odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved slightly from 44.1% to 44.2% as their combined odds dropped from 1.77X to 1.78X driven by Elizabeth Warren.
Warren’s odds dropped for a third straight week. Her odds on the week came in at 4.17X, down from last week’s 3.82X and 3.32X in mid October. These are her lowest odds in 6 weeks. Her odds are following the same trend as other front-runners before her. She is the fifth Democratic leader in just 2019 (Kamala Harris twice, Biden, and Sanders)
The two movers up this week are Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.
Pete Buttigieg seems to be benefiting with his pitch as the only Democratic centrist with any kind of money left. Biden might be leading, but he may be in a cash crunch. Buttigieg’s odds improved from 16.4X to 14.3X. These are his best odds since June. He has now improved in 5 straight weeks.
Two once promising candidates continued to see their odds drop.
Beto O’Rourke dropped out on Friday, and his odds tanked moving from 138X to 212X. O’Rourke peaked around Christmas of 2018 when his odds were around 7.7X. He was briefly the Democratic leader for three weeks in December 2018.
Kamala Harris also once held the Democratic lead, and has seen her odds drop. Her odds dropped from 57.7X to 61.9X as word came out she had cut her staff to conserve cash. This is yet another odds low for her. She led the Democratic field as recently as end of July.
Here are the odds for all candidates with better than 250X odds and the trend of the top candidates:
Another week of little change for Trump’s reelection odds, which given the impeachment inquiry headlines, is rather remarkable. The odds are currently at 2.25X, slightly below last week’s 2.24X. Taking a step back, these are his lowest odds since mid April, but much better than his cycle low of 3.46X in September 2017. The odds for the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 1.77X, meaning Trump’s odds against them dropped slightly from 44.2% to 44.1%.
The big move in odds that started a bit last week, and grew this week, seems to be a reversal of a long positive trend for Warren. Her odds had seen continuous improvement for 6 months, but have now been lower for two straight weeks. This week, the odds dropped from 3.37X to 3.82X, her lowest in 5 weeks. It seems much of the fire that Biden has been taking has now turned towards Warren given her front-runner status.
Tulsi Gabbard has had an eventful week , including taking on Clinton, announcing she is not running for reelection for Congress, and going on Fox News to discuss her displeasure with closed door Democratic hearings. Her odds shot up from 88.7X to 58.9X, a 50% increase and her highest in 9 weeks. She is basically now tied with once Democratic favorite and now fallen star Kamala Harris who dropped from 46.5X to 57.7X. This is another all time low for Harris.
Here are the odds for candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the leaders