Category Archives: Gillibrand 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Castro 2020, de Blasio 2020, Delaney 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Inslee 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

First debate causes shakeup as Harris comes away the big winner at Biden’s expense. Debate and weeks of momentum finally have Warren move ahead of Sanders. Trump continues to cruise near all time highs

The first major shakeup of the odds this elections season came as a result of the first Democratic Debates, with Kamala Harris’ clash with Joe Biden on his history with segregationists having the biggest impact.

Kamala Harris’ odds saw the largest odds increase moving from 13.5X to 7.5X, a nearly 80% jump in odds. The 7.5X is the highest she has been in 14 weeks and was enough to propel her from last week’s 5th place for the Dems to jump over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg for second place. She clearly has the momentum as evidenced by her raising $2M in the first 24 hours after the debate.

The clash had the opposite impact on the Democratic front runner with his odds dropping from 5.50X to 6.81X, a nearly 20% drop and his lowest in 9 weeks. Biden is still the odds favorite after the debate, but he must reverse momentum or risk losing much of his fundraising support.

The other subplot may be the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders competition for lead among progressives. For the last 16 weeks, Joe Biden has been either the favorite or in second place for the Dems. For the last 11 weeks, Elizabeth Warren has been improving her odds at the expense of Sanders’ odds. Warren’s performance at the debate finally allowed her to leapfrog Sanders. Her odds jumped from 12.1X to 9.7X, landing her in 3rd place overall for the Dems. Sanders’ odds dropped from 11.7X to 12.8X, his lowest in over 4 months, taking him from 2nd place to 4th place among the Dems.

In the mean time, Donald Trump continued to cruise near all time highs at 2.03X. This is the 3rd straight week at the same level, and is just shy of the all time high of 2.02X achieved at the beginning of June. He has been in a narrow range of 2.02X to 2.04X the last 6 weeks. Although his odds were flat, the top 5 Democrats moved up as a group from 1.98X to 1.88X. The implied probability of the top 5 Dems vs. Trump moved from 50.6% Dems/ 49.4% Trump to 51.9% Dems / 48.1% Trump.

Here is a summary of the 20 Democrats in the debate and how their odds moved:

Here are the current standings for the 44 candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds (Note how 4 of the candidates from the debate are not on this list) :

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Schultz 2020, Trump 2020

Government shutdown drags Trump’s odds to lowest point since March; Old guard Dems encouraging Biden to run; Gillibrand announces she is running; Gabbard and Castro see big jumps; Starbucks’ Howard Schultz exploring a run

Donald Trump’s odds dropped for a 10th straight week as the government shutdown headed into its fourth week. The odds are now at 2.90X down from 2.88X last week and 2.43X at the beginning of this streak. The 2.9X is the lowest since March of 2018. Trump’s drop in odds have followed his drop in net approval rating which has dropped from -10% prior to the shutdown to last week’s -13% and this week’s -15%.

“Old guard” Democrats are encouraging former VP Joe Biden to run. His odds seem to reflect a strong likelihood that he will, up for the 7th straight from last week’s 12.0X to this week’s 11.5X. He was at 19.3X at the start of the streak. He remains in 4th place overall.

The trend of candidates announcing their intentions to run continued this week with Kirsten Gillibrand. The NY Senator’s odds improved from 33.9X to 31.3X, and she moved up from 12th place to 11th place.

Two of Gillibrand’s peers, who announced a week earlier, saw even bigger jumps. Tulsi Gabbard improved from 33.0X to 26.8X. That was enough to lift her from 11th to 8th place. Julian Castro improved from 71.1X to 60.5X. That was enough to move him from 19th to 17th place.

Howard Schultz advisers are reportedly exploring a possible 2020 run. The former Starbucks CEO’s odds improved from 93.9X to 87.5X. That was enough to move him from 39th place to 32nd place. He has been as high as 14th place, back in July of 2018.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds Hold Steady at One Year Highs; Kamala Harris’ Candidacy Needs Work Back in CA; Warren Continues to Drift Down; Gillibrand Continues to Increase Profile

For the 4th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds remained flat at 2.77X.  These have been his high for over a year.   This is basically the same odds as the next 9 Republican candidates combined, meaning about a 50/50 shot of being the Republican nominee.

Kamala Harris improved slightly from 12.7X to 12.5X and remains in third overall.  Harris seems to be better known as a national name than a local CA name.  That may be problematic come primary time as CA has moved up its primary.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds continued to drift down after announcing she intends on finishing her second term if reelected in the fall.  She was at 13.0X at that time and dropped to 13.8X. This was followed by 14.3X last week, and the current at 14.7X. She remains in 4th place overall.

Kirsten Gillibrand continues to increase her profile as evidenced by this GQ article.  Her odds improved from 24.7X to 23.8X.  That puts her in 7th place overall, an area she’s occupied for six of the last eight weeks when she capitalized on the #MeToo movement.

Here are the full odds:

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