Category Archives: Gabbard 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Cuban 2020, Gabbard 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Tump’s odds remain at all time high; Biden leads Trump in key states, pushing his odds to a new high; Buttigieg continue to breakout; Warren hottest name at expense of Sanders; Gabbard, Hickenlooper, Cuban see bounces

Donald Trump’s odds were flat to last week and remained at their all time high of 2.02X. The odds have now been at a new high or tied for a new high for the last 8 weeks.

After a one week decline, Joe Biden’s odds resumed their upward moves and reached another new high at 5.19X. They were at 5.61X the previous week and 5.57X two weeks ago, the all time high at that point. This as several polls show Biden would have a significant lead over Trump in head to head match-ups in key states like Michigan.

Pete Buttigieg continues to be the breakout of the election cycle. He improved on the week from 15.5X to 13.8X. He is below his all time high however reached near the end of April of 11.1X. He is currently in 5th place.

Just behind Buttigieg is the hottest recent name, Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been up for 7 straight weeks and improved this week from 21.5X to 20.3X. It’s clear that Sanders and Warren are fighting for the same voter as Sanders has been down those same 7 weeks. (Sanders has gone from 6.97X to 8.97 while Warren has gone from 32X to 20.3X)

Other names that showed life this week were Tulsi Gabbard (up from 56.3X to 53.3X, a 9 week high), John Hickenlooper (up from 145.3X to 125.6X, and from 28th place to 19th place, a 6 week high), and Mark Cuban (196.2X to 134.3X and 60th place to 23rd place). Cuban’s change is interesting as there was no recent news of him running and quite a few sites upgraded his odds from around 150X to around 70X)

Below is the list of the 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Schultz 2020, Trump 2020

Government shutdown drags Trump’s odds to lowest point since March; Old guard Dems encouraging Biden to run; Gillibrand announces she is running; Gabbard and Castro see big jumps; Starbucks’ Howard Schultz exploring a run

Donald Trump’s odds dropped for a 10th straight week as the government shutdown headed into its fourth week. The odds are now at 2.90X down from 2.88X last week and 2.43X at the beginning of this streak. The 2.9X is the lowest since March of 2018. Trump’s drop in odds have followed his drop in net approval rating which has dropped from -10% prior to the shutdown to last week’s -13% and this week’s -15%.

“Old guard” Democrats are encouraging former VP Joe Biden to run. His odds seem to reflect a strong likelihood that he will, up for the 7th straight from last week’s 12.0X to this week’s 11.5X. He was at 19.3X at the start of the streak. He remains in 4th place overall.

The trend of candidates announcing their intentions to run continued this week with Kirsten Gillibrand. The NY Senator’s odds improved from 33.9X to 31.3X, and she moved up from 12th place to 11th place.

Two of Gillibrand’s peers, who announced a week earlier, saw even bigger jumps. Tulsi Gabbard improved from 33.0X to 26.8X. That was enough to lift her from 11th to 8th place. Julian Castro improved from 71.1X to 60.5X. That was enough to move him from 19th to 17th place.

Howard Schultz advisers are reportedly exploring a possible 2020 run. The former Starbucks CEO’s odds improved from 93.9X to 87.5X. That was enough to move him from 39th place to 32nd place. He has been as high as 14th place, back in July of 2018.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 556
2020 Weekly Odds, Brown 2020, Castro 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s odds see small drop as shutdown enters third week; Kamala Harris’ odds reach new highs as she begins book tour; Castro and Gabbard announce intentions to run; Sherrod Brown visiting early voting states

For the 9th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds declined, this week from 2.86X to 2.88X. He is now at his lowest odds since the end of February. The government shutdown entered its third week, and it seems to have taken a toll on his odds as well as approval. His net approval dropped this week to -13% from -12% last week and -10% at the start of the shutdown.

Kamala Harris is in the midst of her book tour and some see that as the soft launch to her 2020 campaign. Her odds reached a new high improving from 7.79X to 7.42X as she continues to be the odds favorite for the Democrats. Speculation is she will be announcing soon.

Sherrod Brown continues to move up, improving this week from 28.9X to 26.3X, a new high for him. He is now in 8th place overall. He is planning a trip to Iowa and other early voting states.

Julian Castro became the latest to announce he is running in 2020. His odds improved from 75.3X to 71.1X as he moves up from 23rd place to 19th place. His odds may not fully reflect the announcement as it comes on Saturday morning. The same could be said of Tulsi Gabbard who announced on Friday Her odds saw a slight improvement from 35.6X to 33.0X moving her from 13th place to 11th place.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 541