Category Archives: Gabbard 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, JoeWalsh 2020, Sanders 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds see a small decline for fourth straight week; Warren continues to rise setting another high; Yang jumps Buttigieg for 5th place; Joe Walsh makes debut on the odds

Donald Trump saw his fourth straight drop in a row this week with the odds moving from 1.98X to 2.01X. Those are his lowest odds in 9 weeks. He’s not far off his all time however of 1.90X which he was at prior to this streak. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped from 49.3% to 48.9%. The combined odds of the top 5 Democrats is now at 1.92X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to rise, increasing her odds from 5.90X to 5.65X, another new high. She has improved in 18 of the last 19 weeks. She was at 34X when this rise started in late April.

Bernie Sanders had a good week as well with his odds rising from 12.0X to 11.1X. He now has a 5 week winning streak. This is the highest he has been in 11 weeks. He basically has half the odds of Warren.

Andrew Yang jumped into the 5th spot this week partly as a result of his gains and partly due to Pete Buttigieg’s continued continued struggles. Yang’s odds jumped from 28.5X to 26.2X, his highest in 9 weeks. Yang has a hardcore following that has claimed media bias against the candidate including this week by CNN. Buttigieg’s odds dropped from 24.4X to 28.7X, his lowest since the end of March. He has now declined the last 10 weeks. His campaign claims they are ready for “phase three”.

A couple of names that didn’t make the third Democratic debate saw big drops. Tulsi Gabbard dropped from 45.7X to 66.9X, her lowest in over 2 years (since March 2017). Tom Steyer couldn’t buy his way into the debate (although he’s likely to do so for the next debate). His odds dropped from 120.9X to 146.9X. They are still above the 200+ odds he’s been at prior to three weeks ago.

Joe Walsh formally announced his attempt to take on Trump in the Republican primary last Sunday. He makes his debut in the odds this week at 169X and in 22nd place.

Here are the odds for all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Williamson 2020

Second Democratic debate leads to change in leadership as Harris stumbles and Biden doesn’t. Gabbard, Booker, and Williamson among the winners from debate. Warren continues streak while Sanders stops cold streak. Trump registers another new odds high.

Donald Trump’s Odds continued to be on a roll reaching a new high. The odds improved from last week’s all time high of 1.92X to this week’s 1.90X. He is still in a dead heat however with the top 5 Democrats which also improved from 1.92X to 1.90X combined.

Speaking of the Democrats, the second debate caused a lot of changes in the odds.

The first debate’s winner was undoubtedly Kamala Harris. It seems she is the biggest loser of the second debate. She was attacked on her healthcare plan and her record as a prosecutor. Her odds dropped from 6.3X and second place last week, to 8.0X and 4th place. Her odds are still ahead of where she was prior to the first debate (14X) and in line where she was at right after the first debate (7.5X).

The biggest winner was last debate’s biggest loser, Joe Biden. Unlike last debate, he didn’t stumble, and with Harris’ stumbles, that was enough to regain the lead. His odds jumped from 8.3X to 6.5X. He is once again the favorite for the Democrats. Biden is still behind the 5.5X he was at prior to the first debate and his all time high of 5.2X in early June.

Elizabeth Warren was another winner. She and Bernie Sanders were the liberals on their night against the more moderate candidates. They didn’t take shots at each other and that seemed to help. She continued her hot streak and is now up in 14 of the last 15 weeks. She improved from 8.4X to 8.0X, a new all time high. She was able to move slightly ahead of Harris for 3rd place overall.

Like Warren, Bernie Sanders also improved ending a 14 weeks steak of drops. He improved from 16.0X to 14.2X. He remained in 5th place.

Other winners included:

Aside from Kamala Harris, other losers included:

  • Beto O’ Rourke who dropped from 63.4X to 83.5X (9th place to 11th place). These are his lowest odds since making his debut after the viral video back in August 2018. He had a “subdued” performance without stumbles. That wasn’t enough.
  • Amy Klobuchar who dropped from 74.3X to 93.2X. (11th place to 12th place) She is another candidate at her all time lows. Despite the lack of momentum, she managed to qualify for the next set of debates.

Here are all of the candidates that participated in the debate and their odds last week and this week:

Here are the full odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot

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2020 Weekly Odds, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Castro 2020, de Blasio 2020, Delaney 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Inslee 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

First debate causes shakeup as Harris comes away the big winner at Biden’s expense. Debate and weeks of momentum finally have Warren move ahead of Sanders. Trump continues to cruise near all time highs

The first major shakeup of the odds this elections season came as a result of the first Democratic Debates, with Kamala Harris’ clash with Joe Biden on his history with segregationists having the biggest impact.

Kamala Harris’ odds saw the largest odds increase moving from 13.5X to 7.5X, a nearly 80% jump in odds. The 7.5X is the highest she has been in 14 weeks and was enough to propel her from last week’s 5th place for the Dems to jump over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg for second place. She clearly has the momentum as evidenced by her raising $2M in the first 24 hours after the debate.

The clash had the opposite impact on the Democratic front runner with his odds dropping from 5.50X to 6.81X, a nearly 20% drop and his lowest in 9 weeks. Biden is still the odds favorite after the debate, but he must reverse momentum or risk losing much of his fundraising support.

The other subplot may be the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders competition for lead among progressives. For the last 16 weeks, Joe Biden has been either the favorite or in second place for the Dems. For the last 11 weeks, Elizabeth Warren has been improving her odds at the expense of Sanders’ odds. Warren’s performance at the debate finally allowed her to leapfrog Sanders. Her odds jumped from 12.1X to 9.7X, landing her in 3rd place overall for the Dems. Sanders’ odds dropped from 11.7X to 12.8X, his lowest in over 4 months, taking him from 2nd place to 4th place among the Dems.

In the mean time, Donald Trump continued to cruise near all time highs at 2.03X. This is the 3rd straight week at the same level, and is just shy of the all time high of 2.02X achieved at the beginning of June. He has been in a narrow range of 2.02X to 2.04X the last 6 weeks. Although his odds were flat, the top 5 Democrats moved up as a group from 1.98X to 1.88X. The implied probability of the top 5 Dems vs. Trump moved from 50.6% Dems/ 49.4% Trump to 51.9% Dems / 48.1% Trump.

Here is a summary of the 20 Democrats in the debate and how their odds moved:

Here are the current standings for the 44 candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds (Note how 4 of the candidates from the debate are not on this list) :

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