Another week of little change for Trump’s reelection odds, which given the impeachment inquiry headlines, is rather remarkable. The odds are currently at 2.25X, slightly below last week’s 2.24X. Taking a step back, these are his lowest odds since mid April, but much better than his cycle low of 3.46X in September 2017. The odds for the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 1.77X, meaning Trump’s odds against them dropped slightly from 44.2% to 44.1%.
The big move in odds that started a bit last week, and grew this week, seems to be a reversal of a long positive trend for Warren. Her odds had seen continuous improvement for 6 months, but have now been lower for two straight weeks. This week, the odds dropped from 3.37X to 3.82X, her lowest in 5 weeks. It seems much of the fire that Biden has been taking has now turned towards Warren given her front-runner status.
Tulsi Gabbard has had an eventful week , including taking on Clinton, announcing she is not running for reelection for Congress, and going on Fox News to discuss her displeasure with closed door Democratic hearings. Her odds shot up from 88.7X to 58.9X, a 50% increase and her highest in 9 weeks. She is basically now tied with once Democratic favorite and now fallen star Kamala Harris who dropped from 46.5X to 57.7X. This is another all time low for Harris.
Here are the odds for candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the leaders
Donald Trump saw his fourth straight drop in a row this week with the odds moving from 1.98X to 2.01X. Those are his lowest odds in 9 weeks. He’s not far off his all time however of 1.90X which he was at prior to this streak. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped from 49.3% to 48.9%. The combined odds of the top 5 Democrats is now at 1.92X.
Elizabeth Warren continued to rise, increasing her odds from 5.90X to 5.65X, another new high. She has improved in 18 of the last 19 weeks. She was at 34X when this rise started in late April.
Bernie Sanders had a good week as well with his odds rising from 12.0X to 11.1X. He now has a 5 week winning streak. This is the highest he has been in 11 weeks. He basically has half the odds of Warren.
A couple of names that didn’t make the third Democratic debate saw big drops. Tulsi Gabbard dropped from 45.7X to 66.9X, her lowest in over 2 years (since March 2017). Tom Steyer couldn’t buy his way into the debate (although he’s likely to do so for the next debate). His odds dropped from 120.9X to 146.9X. They are still above the 200+ odds he’s been at prior to three weeks ago.
Joe Walsh formally announced his attempt to take on Trump in the Republican primary last Sunday. He makes his debut in the odds this week at 169X and in 22nd place.
Here are the odds for all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot
Donald Trump’s Odds continued to be on a roll reaching a new high. The odds improved from last week’s all time high of 1.92X to this week’s 1.90X. He is still in a dead heat however with the top 5 Democrats which also improved from 1.92X to 1.90X combined.
Speaking of the Democrats, the second debate caused a lot of changes in the odds.
The first debate’s winner was undoubtedly Kamala Harris. It seems she is the biggest loser of the second debate. She was attacked on her healthcare plan and her record as a prosecutor. Her odds dropped from 6.3X and second place last week, to 8.0X and 4th place. Her odds are still ahead of where she was prior to the first debate (14X) and in line where she was at right after the first debate (7.5X).
Elizabeth Warren was another winner. She and Bernie Sanders were the liberals on their night against the more moderate candidates. They didn’t take shots at each other and that seemed to help. She continued her hot streak and is now up in 14 of the last 15 weeks. She improved from 8.4X to 8.0X, a new all time high. She was able to move slightly ahead of Harris for 3rd place overall.
Like Warren, Bernie Sanders also improved ending a 14 weeks steak of drops. He improved from 16.0X to 14.2X. He remained in 5th place.
Cory Booker who improved from 65.2X to 52.7X allowing him to move from 10th place to 9th. These are his best odds in 15 weeks.
Marianne Williamson who improved from 327X to 263X. That was enough to move her from 88th place to 73rd place. She’s not on the list below as it only shows odds better than 200X. She topped google searches after the debate.
Amy Klobuchar who dropped from 74.3X to 93.2X. (11th place to 12th place) She is another candidate at her all time lows. Despite the lack of momentum, she managed to qualify for the next set of debates.
Here are all of the candidates that participated in the debate and their odds last week and this week:
Here are the full odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot