Donald Trump’s odds remained at their all time high of 1.59X this week. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped slightly however from 57.5% to 56.6% as the odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 2.14X to 2.07X, a function of those outside the top 5 dropping in odds or dropping out all together (Yang, Patrick, Bennett).
For the second straight week the candidate making the most dramatic improvement near the top is Michael Bloomberg. His odds improved from 8.0X to 5.16X, his new all time high. This was enough for him to jump Bernie Sanders for second place overall. His rise had now led to some Twitter jabs between Bloomberg and Trump, a fellow longtime New Yorker. We won’t truly know about his candidacy until Super Tuesday (3/3) which will hold the first primaries he is competing in.
Bernie Sanders odds saw a small dip from 5.30X to 5.67X. These are now his lowest odds in 4 weeks. Although he drops to third overall in the odds to be President, he is still in second place to become the Democratic candidate.
With Bloomberg asserting himself as the moderate candidate and Sanders as the progressive, the odds for the majority of the other leaders dropped:
Biden dropped from 12.7X to 22.3X, his lowest in over two years. He is still in 4th place overall. He needs a win in NV and SC to have any shot at the nomination.
Buttigieg dropped from 15.2X to 22.7X which is still higher than pre Iowa (45.7X). He is still in 5th place overall.
Warren dropped from 38.3X to 93.2X, her all time low. She dropped from 6th place to 8th place falling behind Amy Klobuchar and Hillary Clinton.
Amy Klobuchar rose from 10th place to 6th place as her odds improved from 122.7X to 43.9X. These are her highest odds in 11 months. She finished an impressive 3rd place in New Hampshire. Like many that have risen from outside the top 5 to the lead group, she will now need to hold up to the added scrutiny.
Here is a trend of the top candidates and the odds of the top 20:
Donald Trump’s Odds reached a new high during a week where the Republican Senate voted against allowing witnesses in the impeachment trial, leading to a likely acquittal next week. The odds improved from 1.75X to 1.68X. His previous high was two weeks ago at 1.72X. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved from 53.3% to 54.5%. The odds of the top 5 Democrats saw a small drop from 2.00X to 2.02X.
Bernie Sanders continued to be the hottest name as polls continued to see him surging. His odds reached a new high for a second week in a row climbing from 5.61X to 5.15X. The high for the Democrats this cycle is still held by Warren who was at 3.32X in October, around the time Sanders had his heart attack.
Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg continued to decline. Warren declined from 23.8X to 31.6X, that is the 16th decline in a row, ever since hitting the all time high mentioned above. This is her lowest since May 2019.
Pete Buttigieg dropped from 37.7X to 45.7X. This is his 9th drop in a row and his lowest since March 2019.
The drops by Warren and Buttigieg gave hope to Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang. Klobuchar might be peaking at the right time for Iowa. Her odds improved from 99.8X to 79.4X. That still leaves her in 9th place behind undeclared Hillary Clinton (49.8X).
Andrew Yang’s odds improved from 44.2X to 37.9X. That’s significant because it means he passed Pete Buttigieg for 6th place overall (and got added to the graph below)
Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds of the top 20:
Donald Trump’s odds saw a significant jump for the second straight week, this time from 2.14X to 2.00X. These are his best odds since the end of August. Although recent headlines have been around impeachment, history has shown a strong economy makes it nearly impossible to unseat an incumbent, and recent economic numbers have erased speculation of a recession. The top 5 Democrats saw a drop from 1.92X to 1.99X meaning it’s now almost a tossup between them and Trump.
The other Democratic candidate to jump this week is Hillary Clinton as buzz that she may run continued. This week it was comments by former Bill Clinton adviser Dick Morris. Her odds improved from 29.4X to 24.3X. These are her highest odds in over 2 1/2 years.
Biden was able to stay fairly flat up from 6.95X to 6.73X. He’s been quietly reasserting his lead. This is now a 14 week high for him.
All other top Democratic candidates saw a drop with Buttigieg dropping from 9.0X to 10.6X, a five week low. Warren from 10.2X to 11.4X, a 6 months low. Bloomberg from 14.8X to 15.8X, a 3 week low.
Here is the list of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot and a recent trend of the top candidates: