Category Archives: Clinton 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Clinton 2020, Trump 2020

Trump sees small decline, but still widens lead over Biden; Clinton endorses Biden, and sees her own odds jump; Harris and Klobuchar continue to lead for Dem VP; Could TX become a swing state?

Trump’s odds dropped slightly from 1.92X to 1.93X, his lowest odds in seven weeks. His gap with Biden widened however as Biden’s odds dropped by a wider margin moving from 2.13X to 2.27X, his lowest in eight weeks. That puts Trump’s relative odds vs. Biden at 54%, his highest in four weeks.

The number of Democrats endorsing Biden continued to grow, and this week it was Hillary Clinton with the endorsement. Interestingly, Clinton’s odds saw the biggest move this week, jumping from 48.3X to 23.8X, her highest odds since May 2017.

Here are the full odds:

There were no changes in the likely candidates for VP as Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar continued on top of the list, with Warren in the second tier, and Abrams and Whitmer part of the third tier. 5 of the top 8 candidates are female Senators.

Here are the full odds:

On the state polling side, Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll showing Biden +5 in NC
  • Poll showing Biden +1 in TX
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in NH
  • Poll showing Biden +6 in PA
  • Poll showing tie in TX

The two biggest items as far as the polls is the continuing strength of Biden in PA, which is a must win for both candidates, and the possibility of TX flipping to the Democrats. Right now we still have TX in Trump’s column, and as a result there were no changes made in the projections: 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Biden’s odds nearly double again, reaching new highs; Trump’s odds see a drop, but stay ahead of Biden; Sanders odds lowest in three weeks, passed by a soaring Pence for third place; Odds of Clinton, Haley, and Obama also soar

Joe Biden had more large wins on Super Tuesday II including winning Michigan. As a result, his odds have basically doubled for the second straight week. They have now gone from 8.70X two weeks ago, to 3.99X last week, to 2.12X this week. These are the highest odds for any Democrat this cycle.

Donald Trump’s odds saw a sizable drop, possibly because polls show Biden is a more formidable opponent head to head than Sanders (more on that in a bit), or possibly of the impact of the Corona Virus. After being in a tight range of 1.59X to 1.60X the last five weeks, Trump’s odds dropped to 1.97X, his lowest in three months. The combined odds for Biden and Sanders improved to 1.98X, just shy of Trump. That’s an implied 50.2%/49.8% probability edge to Trump.

Sanders’ disappointing finish on Tuesday dropped his odds from 12.0X to 32.0X. It’s hard to believe just two weeks ago, he was at 3.99X. This is the lowest he has been in over 3 years (Jan 2017).

Mike Pence’s odds more than doubled. Perhaps that’s a hedge on Trump getting sick. Pence’s visibility has also increased tremendously driven by Trump appointing him as the head of the Corona Virus task force. The odds are now at 29.3X, his highest in over a year. These odds actually put him ahead of Bernie Sanders.

There were other jumps in people not running:

  • Hillary Clinton jumped from 71.1X to 39.6X, her highest in 10 weeks
  • Nikki Haley jumped from 242.7X to 116.1X, her highest in 8 weeks
  • Michelle Obama jumped from 178.5X to 116.5X, her highest in 10 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

For the second week we are turning the focus to the state by state polls of Trump vs. Biden and Trump vs. Sanders. These are starting to show a big differentiation, perhaps due to Biden’s momentum. In the last two weeks, polls have been done in 11 states. In 9 of those 11, Biden does better than Sanders against Trump. The other two are even. The biggest differences:

  • AZ, where two polls show Biden up by 8 pts and 6 pts, while they show Sanders ahead of Trump by 5 in one and Trump ahead by 7 in another.
  • Florida poll shows Trump up over Biden by 2 (statistical tie), but up over Sanders by 6
  • Pennsylvania Biden by 6 over Trump but Sanders only up by 2 (statistical tie)

The impact of those three states leads to a big victory for Biden over Trump (as we stand today) but basically a tossup for Sanders.

Here are the state by state projection based on the polls and the history of those states:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Patrick 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump stays at all time highs; Bloomberg jumps Sanders for second Overall, although Sanders still leads in likelihood to win Democratic nomination; Klobuchar passes Warren after strong New Hampshire results

Donald Trump’s odds remained at their all time high of 1.59X this week. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped slightly however from 57.5% to 56.6% as the odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 2.14X to 2.07X, a function of those outside the top 5 dropping in odds or dropping out all together (Yang, Patrick, Bennett).

For the second straight week the candidate making the most dramatic improvement near the top is Michael Bloomberg. His odds improved from 8.0X to 5.16X, his new all time high. This was enough for him to jump Bernie Sanders for second place overall. His rise had now led to some Twitter jabs between Bloomberg and Trump, a fellow longtime New Yorker. We won’t truly know about his candidacy until Super Tuesday (3/3) which will hold the first primaries he is competing in.

Bernie Sanders odds saw a small dip from 5.30X to 5.67X. These are now his lowest odds in 4 weeks. Although he drops to third overall in the odds to be President, he is still in second place to become the Democratic candidate.

With Bloomberg asserting himself as the moderate candidate and Sanders as the progressive, the odds for the majority of the other leaders dropped:

  • Biden dropped from 12.7X to 22.3X, his lowest in over two years. He is still in 4th place overall. He needs a win in NV and SC to have any shot at the nomination.
  • Buttigieg dropped from 15.2X to 22.7X which is still higher than pre Iowa (45.7X). He is still in 5th place overall.
  • Warren dropped from 38.3X to 93.2X, her all time low. She dropped from 6th place to 8th place falling behind Amy Klobuchar and Hillary Clinton.

Amy Klobuchar rose from 10th place to 6th place as her odds improved from 122.7X to 43.9X. These are her highest odds in 11 months. She finished an impressive 3rd place in New Hampshire. Like many that have risen from outside the top 5 to the lead group, she will now need to hold up to the added scrutiny.

Here is a trend of the top candidates and the odds of the top 20:

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