Category Archives: Booker 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds see slight bump ending streak; Warren continues to be hottest name, becoming target of rivals; Harris keeps dropping, is all in on Iowa; Money being bet on Clinton keeps pushing up odds

Donald Trump’s odds rose slightly for the first time in seven weeks. They are now at 2.02X compared to last week’s 2.03X. All time high is 1.90X at the start of August (prior to the 6 week streak). His odds against the top 5 Democratic candidates also rose from 48.1% to 48.5% partly from his improvement and partly from a decrease in their combined odds which worsened from 1.87X to 1.90X.

The hottest candidate continued to be Elizabeth Warren. She reached another new high at 4.89X up from 5.05X. She has now been up in 21 of the last 22 weeks. She was in 8th place at 34.0X just before the start of the streak at the end of April. Even though Warren has been the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for the last 6 weeks (odds acting as leading indicator), she is finally starting to get treated like it by her pears, and that’s not necessarily a good thing as other 2020 rivals will now start taking their shots to unseat her.

The coldest name remained Kamala Harris. She dropped from 18.9X to 23.1X. She peaked in the middle of July at 5.57X and has seen the bottom drop out of her odds. She is now reportedly running a new “Iowa-or-bust” strategy.

This week’s drop by Harris allowed Andrew Yang to jump into 5th place overall. He improved from 22.9X to 21.9X. Here’s a quick interview where Yang predicts the nickname Trump will give him.

For the second straight week, the odds for Hillary Clinton have moved without any news. The explanation is money being put on her as this article suggests. Two weeks ago she sat at 90X and in 12th place. Since then her odds jumped to 70X and 9th place last week, and 54X and 8th place this week (jumping Cory Booker). This is the highest she has been in nearly 2.5 years!

Here are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

Here is a trend of the top candidates:

For updates follow us on twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Williamson 2020

Second Democratic debate leads to change in leadership as Harris stumbles and Biden doesn’t. Gabbard, Booker, and Williamson among the winners from debate. Warren continues streak while Sanders stops cold streak. Trump registers another new odds high.

Donald Trump’s Odds continued to be on a roll reaching a new high. The odds improved from last week’s all time high of 1.92X to this week’s 1.90X. He is still in a dead heat however with the top 5 Democrats which also improved from 1.92X to 1.90X combined.

Speaking of the Democrats, the second debate caused a lot of changes in the odds.

The first debate’s winner was undoubtedly Kamala Harris. It seems she is the biggest loser of the second debate. She was attacked on her healthcare plan and her record as a prosecutor. Her odds dropped from 6.3X and second place last week, to 8.0X and 4th place. Her odds are still ahead of where she was prior to the first debate (14X) and in line where she was at right after the first debate (7.5X).

The biggest winner was last debate’s biggest loser, Joe Biden. Unlike last debate, he didn’t stumble, and with Harris’ stumbles, that was enough to regain the lead. His odds jumped from 8.3X to 6.5X. He is once again the favorite for the Democrats. Biden is still behind the 5.5X he was at prior to the first debate and his all time high of 5.2X in early June.

Elizabeth Warren was another winner. She and Bernie Sanders were the liberals on their night against the more moderate candidates. They didn’t take shots at each other and that seemed to help. She continued her hot streak and is now up in 14 of the last 15 weeks. She improved from 8.4X to 8.0X, a new all time high. She was able to move slightly ahead of Harris for 3rd place overall.

Like Warren, Bernie Sanders also improved ending a 14 weeks steak of drops. He improved from 16.0X to 14.2X. He remained in 5th place.

Other winners included:

Aside from Kamala Harris, other losers included:

  • Beto O’ Rourke who dropped from 63.4X to 83.5X (9th place to 11th place). These are his lowest odds since making his debut after the viral video back in August 2018. He had a “subdued” performance without stumbles. That wasn’t enough.
  • Amy Klobuchar who dropped from 74.3X to 93.2X. (11th place to 12th place) She is another candidate at her all time lows. Despite the lack of momentum, she managed to qualify for the next set of debates.

Here are all of the candidates that participated in the debate and their odds last week and this week:

Here are the full odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot

For updates follow us on twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds set another new high; Kamala’s momentum continues; Steyer reenters race; Cory Booker slowly improving under the radar

Donald Trump’s Odds set a new high with a small improvement over prior week. The odds improved from 2.00X last week to 1.99X this week. The odds have been in a tight range of 1.99X to 2.04X the last 8 weeks. Interestingly (due to Harris’ improvement), his odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dipped to 48.7% compared to last week’s 49.0%. The combined odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 1.92X to 1.89X.

Since the first Democratic Debate, Kamala Harris has been the hottest name and she continued that trend this week. Her odds improved from 6.33X to 5.57X, another new high for her (and slightly behind the high for the Democrats by Joe Biden of 5.19X at the beginning of June). She was at 13.5X prior to the debates.

Tom Steyer threw his name back into the race. His odds saw a large increase from 260X to 193X. That took him up from 76th place to 37th place. Prior to exiting in April, he was in 28th place and at 129X. His peak was at 82X in November 2018.

The one name flying under the radar that has been improving the last few weeks is Cory Booker. He has improved in each of the last 4 weeks and is now at 62.3X and 10th place overall. The 62.3X is the highest he has been in 8 weeks. Keep an eye on SC, an early primary state, for Booker. He is getting endorsements from the state.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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