Category Archives: Bloomberg 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds jump to 16 week high; Bernie’s momentum continues, as he jumps Buttigieg for second place among Democrats; Clinton speculation helps push her odds to a 2 1/2 year high; Biden’s odds continue slow improvement, now at a 3 months high

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Donald Trump’s odds saw a significant jump for the second straight week, this time from 2.14X to 2.00X. These are his best odds since the end of August. Although recent headlines have been around impeachment, history has shown a strong economy makes it nearly impossible to unseat an incumbent, and recent economic numbers have erased speculation of a recession. The top 5 Democrats saw a drop from 1.92X to 1.99X meaning it’s now almost a tossup between them and Trump.

For the second straight week Bernie Sanders seems to have the momentum for the Democrats. His odds rose from 10.1X to 9.2X. These are his best odds in 6 months. Last week he jumped Warren. This week he passed Buttigieg. Some may underestimate him, but others are beginning to take notice.

The other Democratic candidate to jump this week is Hillary Clinton as buzz that she may run continued. This week it was comments by former Bill Clinton adviser Dick Morris. Her odds improved from 29.4X to 24.3X. These are her highest odds in over 2 1/2 years.

Biden was able to stay fairly flat up from 6.95X to 6.73X. He’s been quietly reasserting his lead. This is now a 14 week high for him.

All other top Democratic candidates saw a drop with Buttigieg dropping from 9.0X to 10.6X, a five week low. Warren from 10.2X to 11.4X, a 6 months low. Bloomberg from 14.8X to 15.8X, a 3 week low.

Here is the list of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot and a recent trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds continue in tight range; Bloomberg’s odds nearly double as he outspends opponents in Super Tuesday states; Warren continues to decline, gets passed by Buttigieg; Speculation by FoxNews leads to jump in Michelle Obama’s odds

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement up from 2.28X to 2.27X. That is the second straight small increase. His odds have been in a range of 2.24X to 2.29X over the last 8 weeks. His odds against the top 5 Democrats ticked up a bit from 45.5% to 45.6% as their combined odds stayed flat at 1.90X.

The biggest move up was from Michael Bloomberg as he nearly double his odds from 27.7X to 14.7X. This is a brand new high for him and puts him in 6th place overall. Bloomberg’s money allows him not to have to gain momentum by winning early, delegate poor states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Instead he is focusing on outspending his opponents for Super Tuesdays.

Elizabeth Warren continued her nose dive, dropping this week from 7.32X to 9.53X. This is her lowest since the end of July. Among other things, she seems to have lost the momentum in Iowa to Pete Buttigieg. With this recent slip she was passed by Buttigieg who improved from 8.88X to 8.84X for third place overall. Her gap with Bernie Sanders has tightened. Sanders came in this week flat to last week at 10.5X.

Michelle Obama’s odds shot up as Fox News’ Tucker Carlson predicted she will be the Democratic nominee. Her odds this week were at 83X up from 123X the prior week. These are her highest odds since March and put her in 14th place overall (11th place for the Democrats)

Here are the odds for candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot and a trend of the leaders:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Patrick 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see another small drop; Warren’s cold streak reaches 5, as Buttigieg reaches new high and Sanders rebounds to pre heart attack odds; Patrick enters while Clinton won’t rule out a run

Donald Trump’s odds continued a recent trend of slow declines. They dropped from 2.27X to 2.29X. They have either been flat or have dropped for eight straight weeks when the odds were at 2.02X. Despite the drop, Trump’s odds against the top five Democrats actually increased to 44.1% from 43.4%, as their combined odds dropped from 1.75X to 1.80X. This a result of increases in candidates outside of the top five.

Elizabeth Warren continued her cold streak of now 5 weeks. Her odds dropped from 4.89X to 5.32X. This is her lowest since the beginning of September. Her odds are still 35% higher than Biden’s, although they were more than double just 5 weeks ago.

The two big winners from Warren’s drop continue to be Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg improved from 11.4X to 10.3X. This is yet another high, and he has improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 31.1X at the start of the streak, and has nearly tripled his odds over that span. One poll this week showed Buttigieg to be at the top of Iowa.

Bernie Sanders improved from 12.1X to 11.2X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks (since his heart attack) from 22.1X (doubling his odds). These are his highest odds in nine weeks.

There was some big movement outside of the top 5 Democrats this week:

One week after skyrocketing, Michael Bloomberg’s odds saw a pullback, dropping from 16.1X to 23.8X. This is still way above where he was two weeks ago at 88.4X. He still has not made a decision on whether he is running, but that is likely days away according to Axios.

Hillary Clinton’s odds improved from 29.2X to 26.0X as she refuses to rule out running.

Deval Patrick made it official and announced he is running. His odds shot up from 260.7X to 112.6X, his highest in over 6 months, putting him in 15th overall, putting him just behind Klobuchar and Harris but ahead of Booker and Castro. It will be interesting to see who he hurts, if he starts gaining traction. One the one hand he is more moderate and may pull from a Buttigieg or Bloomberg. On the other hand he is well known in the northeast which may take primary votes from the likes of Warren.

Below are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the top candidates:

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