Category Archives: Bloomberg 2020

Trump’s odds see another small drop; Warren’s cold streak reaches 5, as Buttigieg reaches new high and Sanders rebounds to pre heart attack odds; Patrick enters while Clinton won’t rule out a run

Donald Trump’s odds continued a recent trend of slow declines. They dropped from 2.27X to 2.29X. They have either been flat or have dropped for eight straight weeks when the odds were at 2.02X. Despite the drop, Trump’s odds against the top five Democrats actually increased to 44.1% from 43.4%, as their combined odds dropped from 1.75X to 1.80X. This a result of increases in candidates outside of the top five.

Elizabeth Warren continued her cold streak of now 5 weeks. Her odds dropped from 4.89X to 5.32X. This is her lowest since the beginning of September. Her odds are still 35% higher than Biden’s, although they were more than double just 5 weeks ago.

The two big winners from Warren’s drop continue to be Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg improved from 11.4X to 10.3X. This is yet another high, and he has improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 31.1X at the start of the streak, and has nearly tripled his odds over that span. One poll this week showed Buttigieg to be at the top of Iowa.

Bernie Sanders improved from 12.1X to 11.2X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks (since his heart attack) from 22.1X (doubling his odds). These are his highest odds in nine weeks.

There was some big movement outside of the top 5 Democrats this week:

One week after skyrocketing, Michael Bloomberg’s odds saw a pullback, dropping from 16.1X to 23.8X. This is still way above where he was two weeks ago at 88.4X. He still has not made a decision on whether he is running, but that is likely days away according to Axios.

Hillary Clinton’s odds improved from 29.2X to 26.0X as she refuses to rule out running.

Deval Patrick made it official and announced he is running. His odds shot up from 260.7X to 112.6X, his highest in over 6 months, putting him in 15th overall, putting him just behind Klobuchar and Harris but ahead of Booker and Castro. It will be interesting to see who he hurts, if he starts gaining traction. One the one hand he is more moderate and may pull from a Buttigieg or Bloomberg. On the other hand he is well known in the northeast which may take primary votes from the likes of Warren.

Below are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the top candidates:

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Trumps odds continue slow decline, still more than twice as high as next competitor; Warren’s cold streak reaches 4 weeks; Buttigieg passes an improving Sanders; Bloomberg skyrockets to 6th place after his filing for Alabama primary sparks speculation of a run

Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline, dropping from 2.25X to 2.27X. These are his lowest odds in over 6 months (since mid April). He is still more than twice as high as Warren, his closest competitor. His odds against the top 5 Democrats saw a more dramatic drop (from 45.3% to 44.7%) as their combined odds improved from 1.86X to 1.75X.

Elizabeth Warren continued her recent trend of drops. She was down from 4.17X to 4.89X. She has now dropped for four straight weeks and is at an 8 weeks low. Although there isn’t any direct news that would hurt her candidacy, more moderate alternatives like Buttigieg and Bloomberg are eating into her grip on the Democratic nomination.

Pete Buttigieg seems to have taken the torch from Warren in recent weeks. It’s no coincidence that his hot streak started at the same time as the end of Warren’s. His odds have improved from last week’s 14.3X to 11.4X. He has nearly tripled his odds from 7 weeks ago (31.1X). Buttigieg has been gaining ground in Iowa especially at the expense of Biden. He jumped Sanders in the odds this week, despite the improvement from Sanders (12.8X to 12.1X).

Michael Bloomberg has not officially entered, but he did file for the Alabama primary (Alabama has an early deadline). He is considering jumping in as he sees Biden’s chances dropping. There is a lot of speculation on a potential path to the nomination. Even without his formal entry, Bloomberg’s odds jumped to take him from 12th place to 6th place overall as they moved from 88.4X to 16.1X, his all time high.

Here are the odds for candidates with a better than 250X to 1 shot and a trend of the top candidates:

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Trump’s odds flat to last week; Winners from 4th debate include Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren; Sanders “resets” campaign and gets AOC endorsement; Romney and Bloomberg with big improvements

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.24X, about 15% lower than the 1.90X high set beginning of August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats dropped to 43.9% from 44.8%. This as a result of the top 5 Democrats improving their combined odds from 1.81X to 1.75X.

The Democrats had their 4th debate and based on the odds here’s the big winners:

Here are how to odds moved this week for all who were involved in the debate:

Hillary Clinton’s streak of 9 straight weeks of improvements finally came to an end as she dropped from 25.2X to 31.5X. That is still the highest of any non candidate.

Mitt Romney saw another jump in odds as he stepped up his talk against Trump’s Syria policy. The odds moved from 98.0X to 80.6X, his highest since January.

Michael Bloomberg’s odds nearly doubled from 197.4X to 107.7X as reports came out he is looking into possibly entering if Biden falters. These are his highest odds since May.

Here are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates

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