Category Archives: Biden 2020

Biden’s odds overtake Trump’s for the first time; 5 of top 6 Dem VP candidates are African American women; Many state polls released: Could Texas go to Biden? NC, OH, WI remain tossups

A bad week for Donald Trump finally resulted in Joe Biden overtaking him. With the focus on the George Floyd protests, Trump’s approval rating dropped to its lowest level since November 2019 (time of Ukraine call testimony). His odds dropped from 1.98X to 2.11X, his lowest since beginning of December. Biden’s odds improved from 2.06X to 1.90X, and all time high for him. Trump’s all time high was 1.59X back near the end of February. The implied odds head to head are now 52.6% Biden and 47.4% Trump.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, the likelihood Biden would pick an African American woman as his VP continued to increase. Kamala Harris reached a new high at 2.5X. Val Demings improved again from 7.7X to 5.9X. Susan Rice made her debut at 20.0X. The biggest drop came from the only non African American near the top in Elizabeth Warren. He odds worsened from 7.7X to 12.5X. Out of the top 6 candidates, 5 of them are African American women.

Here are the full odds:

Many polls came out this past week. Some of the more important ones:

  • Texas Trump +1: If this state turns for the Democrats the race is all but over. Still keeping this in Trump’s column
  • Ohio Biden +2: Biden gets 2 of the last 3 polls in that state but keeping it as a tossup for now
  • 3 North Carolina polls: Biden +4, Biden +1, Trump +3. Keeping this as a tossup as well
  • Arizona Biden + 4 and Trump +1; Previous 3 polls to this one were for Biden. Keeping state for Biden for now
  • Wisconsin Biden +9 and tie; Both polls seem extreme. Previous 3 polls were for Biden but by a small margin. Keeping tossup for now but definitely leaning Biden.
  • Pennsylvania Trump +4; Previous 3 polls were Biden by an average of +7. Keeping this to Biden for now. Will move to tossup if next poll goes to Trump
  • Florida Biden +3. That is five in a row for Biden in Florida which is huge. Keeping to Biden for now.

We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:

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Biden’s Odds reach a new high, narrows gap with Trump; Protests have large impact on VP odds as Bottoms makes debut while Klobuchar drops; Polls tighten in FL, MN, UT, MO

Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 1.91X to 1.98X, their lowest in 2020. They had been in a tight range the previous 8 weeks between 1.88X and 1.93X. As a result, Joe Biden’s odds were the mirror image improving from 2.26X to 2.06X. The 2.06X is an all time high for Biden. The previous high was in the middle of March at 2.12X. Trump’s edge in a one on one matchup is now down from 54.1% to 51.0%

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, the demonstrations and unrest resulting from the death of George Floyd seem to be driving the odds. Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar’s odds sank from 5.3X to 16.7X. On the other hand, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has upped her profile, and as a result, made her debut at 16.7X. Val Demings continued to improve jumping from last week’s 11.1X to this week’s 7.7X. Warren also saw a jump this week from 9.1X to 7.7X as multiple media outlets proclaimed her the front-runner. Kamala Harris, however, continued to be the odds favorite, improving her odds to 2.8X. She has led the odds every week since we started tracking them seven weeks ago.

Here are the full odds:

The polls didn’t change the overall forecast although some were tighter than expected. Trump has made Florida and Minnesota tighter than previous polls while Biden has made Utah and Missouri tighter. It’s unknown which of these are true tightenings vs. just outlier polls. Future polls will answer that. For now here are the polls:

  • Minnesota Biden +5 (keep to Biden)
  • Maryland Biden +24 (Keep to Biden)
  • Utah Trump +3 (Keep to Trump, tighter than expected after previous double digit leads)
  • New York Biden +25 (keep to Biden)
  • Missouri Trump +4 (Keep to Trump, tighter than expected)
  • Florida Biden +1 (tighter than expected, keep to Biden as previous polls were +6, +3, +4)

We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:

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Odds for Trump and Biden flat to last week even as Trump’s approval continues to decline, and Biden has another “gaffe”; Val Demings shoots up the VP odds; Biden leads poll in swing state AZ for 7th straight time

Odds for both Trump and Biden remained flat with Trump at 1.91X, tied with the last three weeks for a five week high, and Biden at 2.26X, tied with last week for a 4 weeks high. Trump’s implied odds against Biden saw a small drop from 54.2% to 54.1% (rounding). The disconnect between net approval rating (-7% at start of month, -10% current according to five thirty eight) and state polls (see below) on the one hand and the odds on the other hand continued.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, Val Demings continued to move up the odds a week after making her debut. She further raised her profile this week as she attacked Trump for trying to capitalize on Biden’s comment about African American voters. She rose from 8th place and 25.0X to 4th place and 11.1X.

Here are the full odds:

Only one poll from a swing state was released this week with Biden leading Trump in AZ by 7. Here is the full set of polls:

  • Tennessee Trump +17
  • Virginia Biden +12
  • Arizona Biden +7
  • Washington Biden +26
  • California Biden +28
  • Kentucky Trump +16

AZ only reinforced our call for that state to Biden. We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:

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