Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline, dropping from 2.25X to 2.27X. These are his lowest odds in over 6 months (since mid April). He is still more than twice as high as Warren, his closest competitor. His odds against the top 5 Democrats saw a more dramatic drop (from 45.3% to 44.7%) as their combined odds improved from 1.86X to 1.75X.
Elizabeth Warren continued her recent trend of drops. She was down from 4.17X to 4.89X. She has now dropped for four straight weeks and is at an 8 weeks low. Although there isn’t any direct news that would hurt her candidacy, more moderate alternatives like Buttigieg and Bloomberg are eating into her grip on the Democratic nomination.
Pete Buttigieg seems to have taken the torch from Warren in recent weeks. It’s no coincidence that his hot streak started at the same time as the end of Warren’s. His odds have improved from last week’s 14.3X to 11.4X. He has nearly tripled his odds from 7 weeks ago (31.1X). Buttigieg has been gaining ground in Iowa especially at the expense of Biden. He jumped Sanders in the odds this week, despite the improvement from Sanders (12.8X to 12.1X).
Michael Bloomberg has not officially entered, but he did file for the Alabama primary (Alabama has an early deadline). He is considering jumping in as he sees Biden’s chances dropping. There is a lot of speculation on a potential path to the nomination. Even without his formal entry, Bloomberg’s odds jumped to take him from 12th place to 6th place overall as they moved from 88.4X to 16.1X, his all time high.
Here are the odds for candidates with a better than 250X to 1 shot and a trend of the top candidates:
Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.25X. They have been very resilient the last 4 weeks showing no impact from a possible impeachment. The odds were at 2.24X three weeks ago. Trump’s odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved slightly from 44.1% to 44.2% as their combined odds dropped from 1.77X to 1.78X driven by Elizabeth Warren.
Warren’s odds dropped for a third straight week. Her odds on the week came in at 4.17X, down from last week’s 3.82X and 3.32X in mid October. These are her lowest odds in 6 weeks. Her odds are following the same trend as other front-runners before her. She is the fifth Democratic leader in just 2019 (Kamala Harris twice, Biden, and Sanders)
The two movers up this week are Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.
Pete Buttigieg seems to be benefiting with his pitch as the only Democratic centrist with any kind of money left. Biden might be leading, but he may be in a cash crunch. Buttigieg’s odds improved from 16.4X to 14.3X. These are his best odds since June. He has now improved in 5 straight weeks.
Two once promising candidates continued to see their odds drop.
Beto O’Rourke dropped out on Friday, and his odds tanked moving from 138X to 212X. O’Rourke peaked around Christmas of 2018 when his odds were around 7.7X. He was briefly the Democratic leader for three weeks in December 2018.
Kamala Harris also once held the Democratic lead, and has seen her odds drop. Her odds dropped from 57.7X to 61.9X as word came out she had cut her staff to conserve cash. This is yet another odds low for her. She led the Democratic field as recently as end of July.
Here are the odds for all candidates with better than 250X odds and the trend of the top candidates:
Another week of little change for Trump’s reelection odds, which given the impeachment inquiry headlines, is rather remarkable. The odds are currently at 2.25X, slightly below last week’s 2.24X. Taking a step back, these are his lowest odds since mid April, but much better than his cycle low of 3.46X in September 2017. The odds for the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 1.77X, meaning Trump’s odds against them dropped slightly from 44.2% to 44.1%.
The big move in odds that started a bit last week, and grew this week, seems to be a reversal of a long positive trend for Warren. Her odds had seen continuous improvement for 6 months, but have now been lower for two straight weeks. This week, the odds dropped from 3.37X to 3.82X, her lowest in 5 weeks. It seems much of the fire that Biden has been taking has now turned towards Warren given her front-runner status.
Tulsi Gabbard has had an eventful week , including taking on Clinton, announcing she is not running for reelection for Congress, and going on Fox News to discuss her displeasure with closed door Democratic hearings. Her odds shot up from 88.7X to 58.9X, a 50% increase and her highest in 9 weeks. She is basically now tied with once Democratic favorite and now fallen star Kamala Harris who dropped from 46.5X to 57.7X. This is another all time low for Harris.
Here are the odds for candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the leaders