Category Archives: Biden 2020

Trump’s odds improve to best in 11 weeks on small increase; Beto makes it official, sucks up 2020 coverage from both sides; Biden continues to tease run; Yang jumps ahead of big names including Warren, Klobuchar, and Booker

Donald Trump’s Odds continued their recent streak of small but consistent improvements, this week moving from 2.86X to 2.85X. This is the third straight week of improvements. He was at 2.93X four weeks ago. This is the highest he has been in 11 weeks. The headlines this week centered around Congress’ vote to release the Mueller report and Trump’s first veto to the rebuke from Congress on the border wall state of emergency.

Beto O’Rourke finally made it official this week. The amount of coverage he received from all media whether political in nature or not, would suggest his candidacy will either be very successful (top 3 Democratic candidate) or a total flop (ala Jeb Bush being a top candidate and quickly crashing and burning in 2016). His odds improved from 10.1X to 9.2X. He stayed in 5th place overall.

Joe Biden is the last top candidate that has not announced his intentions of running. He continues to tease a run, and the direction his odds have moved the past four weeks indicate most believe he will run. He was up this week from 8.39X to 7.57X, allowing him to stay in fourth place. His odds were at 10.9X just one month ago.

Perhaps the hottest name not on everyone’s radar is Andrew Yang. The Democrat that is best known for his Universal Basic Income stance continues to get media coverage giving life to his unlikely candidacy. He jumped this week from 50.5X to 27.2X, moving from 13th place to 6th place. To give some perspective about the inroads he has made (at least from a betting perspective): He is currently ahead of big names like Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Cory Booker. He was first mentioned on this blog exactly one month ago when he jumped from 169X and 81st place to 127X and 63rd place.

Here are the full odds:

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Trump’s odds steady despite bad headlines; Biden’s family on board for a run, will be making decision soon; Beto continues to tease a run; Andrew Yang talks Freedom Dividend on FoxNews, odds nearly double

Donald Trump’s Odds held steady for the week despite some bad headlines including a summit with North Korea that he cut short and public testimony by his former attorney Michael Cohen. His odds barely budged improving from 2.93X to 2.91X. He remained in the tight range of 2.90X to 2.96X for the seventh week in a row.

Joe Biden says his family is on board with a potential run and he will be making a decision soon. His odds jumped from 10.4X to 9.2X which moved him up in the standings from 4th place to 3rd just slightly ahead of Bernie Sanders. This is the highest Biden has been in both odds and standings.

Beto O’Rourke continues to tease a Presidential run. His odds jumped from 12.8X to 9.5X, his best in 5 weeks. He remains in fifth place overall and has been as high as second place.

The biggest mover of the week was Andrew Yang. He nearly doubled his odds moving from 122.4X to 69.2X. That was enough to move him from 58th place to 17th place. The Democratic entrepreneur best known for his support for a Universal basic income (rebranded “the Freedom Dividend”) continues to make the rounds for publicity this week stopping by Fox News. Here’s a short profile from Axios of the 2020 candidate.

Here is a list of all the odds:

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Government shutdown drags Trump’s odds to lowest point since March; Old guard Dems encouraging Biden to run; Gillibrand announces she is running; Gabbard and Castro see big jumps; Starbucks’ Howard Schultz exploring a run

Donald Trump’s odds dropped for a 10th straight week as the government shutdown headed into its fourth week. The odds are now at 2.90X down from 2.88X last week and 2.43X at the beginning of this streak. The 2.9X is the lowest since March of 2018. Trump’s drop in odds have followed his drop in net approval rating which has dropped from -10% prior to the shutdown to last week’s -13% and this week’s -15%.

“Old guard” Democrats are encouraging former VP Joe Biden to run. His odds seem to reflect a strong likelihood that he will, up for the 7th straight from last week’s 12.0X to this week’s 11.5X. He was at 19.3X at the start of the streak. He remains in 4th place overall.

The trend of candidates announcing their intentions to run continued this week with Kirsten Gillibrand. The NY Senator’s odds improved from 33.9X to 31.3X, and she moved up from 12th place to 11th place.

Two of Gillibrand’s peers, who announced a week earlier, saw even bigger jumps. Tulsi Gabbard improved from 33.0X to 26.8X. That was enough to lift her from 11th to 8th place. Julian Castro improved from 71.1X to 60.5X. That was enough to move him from 19th to 17th place.

Howard Schultz advisers are reportedly exploring a possible 2020 run. The former Starbucks CEO’s odds improved from 93.9X to 87.5X. That was enough to move him from 39th place to 32nd place. He has been as high as 14th place, back in July of 2018.

Here are the full odds:

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