Donald Trump saw another small decline in his odds for re-election as his payout once again increased from 3.10X to 3.15X. This is the third decline in a row and the highest the payout has been to date. This is consistent with Trump hitting new lows in some of the approval polls. He remains the odds on favorite having almost as much odds as the next four competitors combined.
Deval Patrick made his debut in 14th place this week driven by news that the former Massachusetts Governor is being urged to run in 2020 by Obama’s inner circle. His payout is at 36.6X.
Bernie Sanders continued improving as his payout fell to 17.8X from 18.6X last week and 19.9X the previous week. This is the lowest payout he has been at. He remains in 5th place for the 8th straight week.
Mark Zuckerberg remained another hot name. His payout dropped from 24.9X to 23.2X and he moved up from 11th place to 8th place, the highest he has ever been. Speculation about him running increased as his non-profit hired a former Obama and Clinton pollster/adviser.
Donald Trump’s odds took a slight hit this week as his Chief of Staff resigned/was fired. His payout moved up from 3.0X to 3.1X. That is the lowest odds in 10 weeks. His probability drops from 20.4% to 19.7%. His odds remain about 3 times his next competitor, his VP Mike Pence, who is at 8.6X.
Another hot name has been Dwayne Johnson. In a week with no 2020 news about him, he jumped from 13th place to 8th place with his payout dropping from 31X to 24X. It’s common to see jumps like this when there are very few sites with odds on someone. That is not the case here. This is based on 9 different odds makers.
Reports of Bernie Sanders likely running helped his odds as his payout declined from 19.9X to 18.6X. He remains in 5th place. This matches the best odds he has had, which previously came at the beginning of July.
For the 9th straight week, Donald Trump’s payout remained at 3.0X with his probability at 20.4%. That is once again equivalent to the probability for the next four competitors combined.
Kamala Harris was the hottest name on the week as she continues to meet with Democratic power brokers and donors. Her payout dropped from 28.6X to 25.2X. That was enough for her to jump over Paul Ryan for 10th place overall. Her payout was over 30X just four weeks ago.
Al Franken continues to be another hot name. His payout dropped from 63X to 59X. He was at 71.7X five weeks ago before releasing his book and embarking on a bit of a promotional tour. He is currently in 29th place.
