Category Archives: 2018 Elections

2018 Elections, Flake 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s odds lowest in a month; Could Klobuchar’s calm Midwestern style be her advantage? Jeff Flake wants someone in GOP to challenge Trump; Billionaire Tom Steyer looking more like a candidate

For the second week in a row, Donald Trump’s odds dropped slightly this time from 2.49X to 2.53X.  These are the lowest odds he has had in 5 weeks but well above his average for the cycle of of 2.86X.

Amy Klobuchar  has seen her odds improve in the past few weeks.  She was at 54.4X at in 16th place just four weeks ago.  She has steadily improved since and comes in at 37.9X and in 12th place.  Many think her calm Midwestern style makes her standout from other 2020 candidates.

Jeff Flake announced that he doesn’t think that he will be a 2020 challenger to Trump but believes that somebody from the GOP should challenge him.  His odds improved from 129.9X to 117.3X.  That was enough to jump him from 70th place to 58th place.

One of the most vocal opponents of Trump has been billionaire Tom Steyer.  His ad buys and scheduled townhalls have many thinking he will be running. His odds jumped up from 93.8X to 81.8X, moving him up from 40th place to 31st place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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2018 Elections, 2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Patrick 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds Remain at All Time Highs; Warren Helped by Trump’s Attacks; Booker and Patrick to Visit TX

Donald Trump’s odds remained at 2.40X for the second straight week, an all time high. That is nearly 5 times the next closest competitor and 6.5 times better than the next closest Republican, Mike Pence.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds improved to 14.5X from 14.7X.  That was enough to have her jump over Joe Biden into 4th place overall.  She seems to be Trump’s favorite target, which of course helps her on the left. She had been as high as 2nd place for a few weeks back in February.

Cory Booker is considered another front runner for the Democrats.  His odds dropped slightly from 30.2X to 31.3X.  Those are his lowest odds of the cycle.  He is currently in 9th place.  He peaked at 19.6X and 5th place shortly after the 2016 election.  Regardless of the odds, his actions seem to indicate he will be running, including planning to speak at a fundraising dinner in TX in September.

Speaking of TX and Democrats, another candidate, Deval Patrick will be there campaigning for Democrats this weekend. Patrick’s odds improved this week from 54.7X to 52.5X moving him from 22nd to 21st place.  This is the highest he has been in 6 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

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2018 Elections, 2020 Weekly Odds, Hickenlooper 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Continues to Edge Up; John Hickenlooper Odds Improve as He Weighs in on Immigrant Debate; State of ’18 Congressional Elections

Trump continued to edge up as his odds improved from 2.47X to 2.46X.  These are his best odds since his inauguration at end of January 2017.

Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper weighed in on the immigration debate by signing an executive order banning the use of CO resources from separating immigrant families.  The term limited Democrat is thought to be leaning towards running in 2020.  His odds jumped from 68.8X to 65.0X. He moves up from 32nd place to 31st.

There were very few other moves in odds on the week.

Here are the overall results:

One thing to keep an eye on is the 2018 Congressional elections.  It is well known that regardless of which party has the White House, it looses seats in the midterm elections.  That is likely to be the case this year for Congress, although the Republicans may increase their lead in the Senate (due to 29 D Senate seats up for election vs. 9 for Republicans).

Here is the trend of expected seats.  This uses the projections from the  Cook Political Report and assigns probabilities.  The chart shows the progress of the “Blue Wave” over time.  It seems to have plateaued in April.  Current forecast is 223 Democrats and 213 Republicans.

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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