All posts by Aztocas

Pre NV Caucus post debate odds: Bloomberg takes incoming from all sides, odds sink; Sanders at an all time high while Warren’s “fiery” debate performance brings life back to her odds; Targeting of Bloomberg provides relief for Biden, whose odds improve; Trump’s odds still at all time high

Donald Trump’s odds remained at their all time high of 1.59X for the third straight week as the Democrats used the NV debate to turn their attacks on each other, mostly Bloomberg. As for the top 5 Democrats their odds improved slightly from 2.13X to 2.09X as Warren came back to life. This gives Trump an implied likelihood of beating the top 5 of 56.7%, down slightly from last week’s all time high of 57.2%.

It was an eventful week for the Democrats that included Michael Bloomberg’s first debate (coincidentally the most watched Democratic debate in history) and that ends in tonight’s NV caucus.

Coming into the week, Michael Bloomberg was the hottest candidate having jumped from 6th place to 2nd place in a mere 7 weeks and having tripled his odds over that period. Bloomberg managed to qualify for the NV debate last minute and chose to take part in it, even though he is not taking part in the caucus. Perhaps that was a mistake, as the other Democrats piled on the former NYC Mayor. On the other hand, perhaps it was a good strategy to get that out of the way before the next debate, which will be the last before Super Tuesday, Bloomberg’s big target all along. His odds dropped from 5.16X to 7.58X, still his second highest ever.

There seemed to be two big beneficiaries from Bloomberg’s fall. Bernie Sanders’ odds rose from 5.67X to 4.22X, which was enough for him to jump over Bloomberg for second overall, and also set a new personal high for the Senator.

The other big winner was Elizabeth Warren. The Senator was “on fire” during the debate, but some wonder if it’s a bit too late. Her odds showed a big rebound from 93.2X to 53.4X. That is a huge jump, but keeping things in perspective, she was at 38.3X the week before just prior to the NH Primary.

Joe Biden was for once not the target of his rivals, and that seemed to help. His odds improved from 22.3 to 20.3. He remains in 4th place.

Amy Klobuchar will need to surprise in either NV or SC or her campaign may run out of time, air, money…. Her odds dropped from 43.9X to 86.7X. She is still above the 122.7X she was at before the NH primary, but she will need to show she can sustain momentum from NH in NV and/or SC, two difficult states for her.

Here is a trend of the top candidates and the odds for the field:

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Trump stays at all time highs; Bloomberg jumps Sanders for second Overall, although Sanders still leads in likelihood to win Democratic nomination; Klobuchar passes Warren after strong New Hampshire results

Donald Trump’s odds remained at their all time high of 1.59X this week. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped slightly however from 57.5% to 56.6% as the odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 2.14X to 2.07X, a function of those outside the top 5 dropping in odds or dropping out all together (Yang, Patrick, Bennett).

For the second straight week the candidate making the most dramatic improvement near the top is Michael Bloomberg. His odds improved from 8.0X to 5.16X, his new all time high. This was enough for him to jump Bernie Sanders for second place overall. His rise had now led to some Twitter jabs between Bloomberg and Trump, a fellow longtime New Yorker. We won’t truly know about his candidacy until Super Tuesday (3/3) which will hold the first primaries he is competing in.

Bernie Sanders odds saw a small dip from 5.30X to 5.67X. These are now his lowest odds in 4 weeks. Although he drops to third overall in the odds to be President, he is still in second place to become the Democratic candidate.

With Bloomberg asserting himself as the moderate candidate and Sanders as the progressive, the odds for the majority of the other leaders dropped:

  • Biden dropped from 12.7X to 22.3X, his lowest in over two years. He is still in 4th place overall. He needs a win in NV and SC to have any shot at the nomination.
  • Buttigieg dropped from 15.2X to 22.7X which is still higher than pre Iowa (45.7X). He is still in 5th place overall.
  • Warren dropped from 38.3X to 93.2X, her all time low. She dropped from 6th place to 8th place falling behind Amy Klobuchar and Hillary Clinton.

Amy Klobuchar rose from 10th place to 6th place as her odds improved from 122.7X to 43.9X. These are her highest odds in 11 months. She finished an impressive 3rd place in New Hampshire. Like many that have risen from outside the top 5 to the lead group, she will now need to hold up to the added scrutiny.

Here is a trend of the top candidates and the odds of the top 20:

For updates follow us on Twitter

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Trump’s odds reach another new high post Senate trial; Iowa Caucus and NH Debate lead to shakeup for the Democrats: Bloomberg and Buttigieg climb while Biden and Warren fall, and Sanders stays steady at the top

Donald Trump’s odds reached another new high this week with the conclusion of the Senate trial. They improved from 1.68X to 1.59X. Over the last 12 weeks, they have improved from 2.28X, over a 40% improvement. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved from 54.5% to 56.6%, this as their combined odds dropped from 2.02X to 2.06X.

For the Democrats, there were two critical events impacting the odds: the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire debate.

One of the big winners on the week did not participate in either. Michael Bloomberg’s odds shot up to 8.0X from 11.4X. This is his 5th straight new high. He chose not to participate in the Iowa Caucus instead deciding to focus on Super Tuesday and he chose not to accept any donations, making him ineligible for one of the criteria for the debate. The improvement in odds along with Biden faltering, allowed him to jump the former VP for third place.

The other big winner for the Democrats was Pete Buttigieg. He beat Sanders by the slimmest of margins in the Iowa Caucus. Buttigieg’s odds reversed a 9 weeks decline in odds that took him from 9.0X to 45.7X. He nearly tripled his odds this week improving to 15.2X, his highest in 7 weeks, passing both Yang and Warren.

Bernie Sanders came into the week with the momentum and the lead. Although his momentum may have slowed (given the improvements from Buttigieg and Bloomberg), he remains solidly in the lead for the Democrats. His odds dropped slightly from 5.15X to 5.30X.

The biggest drop of the week was Joe Biden. He came in 4th place in the Iowa caucus and will likely do the same in New Hampshire. His odds were nearly cut in half from 6.2X to 12.7X. It will be interesting to see if/how his support goes to other “moderates” in Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar.

Speaking of Klobuchar, the Senator got plenty of positive reviews for both Iowa Caucus results as well as her debate performance. Unfortunately that does not seem to be enough with so many candidates in front of her. Her odds dropped from 79.4X to 122.7X. It will be interesting to watch if there is pressure on her to drop out to help consolidate the delegates for the “moderate” candidates. The same may start occurring with Warren to consolidate the “Progressive” vote with Bernie, although with less candidates there and with Bernie ahead, that pressure will be less for the time being.

Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds of the top 20:

For updates follow us on Twitter

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