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Biden’s odds improve close to his all time high; Forecast still has Biden by a large margin, although Trump made up 1 point; Trump pulls ahead in Ohio, and shrinks Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania

Joe Biden’s odds rebounded from last week’s 1.52X to to 1.45X, just shy of his all time high two weeks ago of 1.44X. Trump’s odds dropped from 2.59X to 2.76X, ahead of where he was two weeks ago after the COVID diagnosis (2.82X) but below where he was prior to getting ill (2.08X).

The implied probability for Biden increased from 63.0% to 65.7%, his second highest behind the 66.2% from two weeks ago.

Here are the odds:

Although Biden’s odds improved, the Electoral forecast saw a little bit of a dip from a 338-200 projected win to 337-201. There were only two models that were updated: Five Thirty Eight and Economist, and both get updated daily. The range between the models reached an all time low this week.

Keeping it simple: The big move this week was Ohio swinging back to Trump. Georgia continues to be the ultimate flip of a coin. For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, win the Georgia coin flip, and make up for being behind in North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The two states that appear to be the most hotly contested are Georgia and Iowa. The most difficult state that Trump has to turn is Pennsylvania which is currently Biden +5.5%. That was +6.5% last week. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 3)

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Trumps odds show an improvement vs. last week although Biden is still at his second biggest leads this cycle; Very small changes in the Electoral forecast with Biden maintaining a forecasted 120+ edge; Georgia becomes a tossup

Donald Trump’s odds rebounded a bit from 2.82X to 2.59X. Although that is a big jump, it’s still his second lowest since the end of July. Biden’s odds dropped from 1.44X to 1.52X. The implied Biden probability decreased from 66.2% to 63.0%. Despite the drop, this is still his second highest implied odds.

Here are the odds:

There was very little change in the electoral forecast as one model increased the votes for Trump and two others for Biden. In Total, the Biden Electoral total increased by one and is now at 338 Biden and 200 Trump. The edge for Biden ranges from 127 to 156 Electoral votes. Here are the different models:

Keeping it simple: It looks like Georgia might be moving towards the Democrats this week. For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas and Iowa, and make up for being behind in Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The two states most likely to flip have are currently forecast at basically a tossup in Georgia and Biden +0.2% for Ohio. The most difficult state that Trump has to turn is Pennsylvania which is currently Biden +6.5% The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 2)

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Odds Are back with Biden at an all time high; Electoral forecasts have converged together but widened in favor of Biden

The odds came back with Donald Trump out of the hospital with a dramatic drop for the President. Trump’s odds dropped from 2.08X to 2.82X, his lowest since March 2019. Biden’s odds improved from 1.79X to 1.44X, his best odds to date (Previous high of 1.56X on 8/1)

The implied odds for Biden are now at 66.2% compared to 53.8%.

Updating the Predictit.org odds, Biden improved from 0.64 to 0.66 while Trump improves slightly from 0.37 to 0.38. Trump’s improvement came from Pence who dropped from Pence dropping from .05 to .02. Below is some of the previous Predictit.org odds.

9/26: Odds for Trump were 0.57 Biden, 0.47 Trump, 0.01 Pence, 0.05 Harris. These would imply odds of 54.8% for Biden, close to our implied odds from last week of 53.8%.

9/30 after the Presidential debate: 0.62 Biden, 0.42 Trump, 0.01 Pence, 0.02 Harris (Harris drops as Biden doesn’t flat on his face at debate?). The implied odds for Biden go up to 59.6%

10/2 Trump announces he has COVID and later gets admitted to Walter Reed: 0.64 Biden, 0.37 Trump, 0.05 Pence (hedge on Trump not finishing campaign), and Harris 0.04 (hedge on Biden getting COVID?). The implied odds of JUST Biden vs. Trump are now at 63.3%. Odds of the 4 combined tilt 61.8% Democrats.

The forecasts are now being updated more regularly. 5 of the 7 models moved in Biden’s direction while two stayed flat. The forecast is now at 337 Biden and 201 Trump, an all time high for Biden.. The models continued to converge and over half of them actually have the same forecast of 333 to 206. Here are the different models:

Keeping it simple: (exactly the same as last week( For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Iowa, and Georgia, and make up for being behind in Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The two states most likely to flip have are currently forecast at Trump +0.7% in Georgia and Biden +0.5% for Ohio. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 3)

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