All posts by Aztocas

Trump’s odds see another small drop; Warren’s cold streak reaches 5, as Buttigieg reaches new high and Sanders rebounds to pre heart attack odds; Patrick enters while Clinton won’t rule out a run

Donald Trump’s odds continued a recent trend of slow declines. They dropped from 2.27X to 2.29X. They have either been flat or have dropped for eight straight weeks when the odds were at 2.02X. Despite the drop, Trump’s odds against the top five Democrats actually increased to 44.1% from 43.4%, as their combined odds dropped from 1.75X to 1.80X. This a result of increases in candidates outside of the top five.

Elizabeth Warren continued her cold streak of now 5 weeks. Her odds dropped from 4.89X to 5.32X. This is her lowest since the beginning of September. Her odds are still 35% higher than Biden’s, although they were more than double just 5 weeks ago.

The two big winners from Warren’s drop continue to be Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg improved from 11.4X to 10.3X. This is yet another high, and he has improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 31.1X at the start of the streak, and has nearly tripled his odds over that span. One poll this week showed Buttigieg to be at the top of Iowa.

Bernie Sanders improved from 12.1X to 11.2X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks (since his heart attack) from 22.1X (doubling his odds). These are his highest odds in nine weeks.

There was some big movement outside of the top 5 Democrats this week:

One week after skyrocketing, Michael Bloomberg’s odds saw a pullback, dropping from 16.1X to 23.8X. This is still way above where he was two weeks ago at 88.4X. He still has not made a decision on whether he is running, but that is likely days away according to Axios.

Hillary Clinton’s odds improved from 29.2X to 26.0X as she refuses to rule out running.

Deval Patrick made it official and announced he is running. His odds shot up from 260.7X to 112.6X, his highest in over 6 months, putting him in 15th overall, putting him just behind Klobuchar and Harris but ahead of Booker and Castro. It will be interesting to see who he hurts, if he starts gaining traction. One the one hand he is more moderate and may pull from a Buttigieg or Bloomberg. On the other hand he is well known in the northeast which may take primary votes from the likes of Warren.

Below are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the top candidates:

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Trumps odds continue slow decline, still more than twice as high as next competitor; Warren’s cold streak reaches 4 weeks; Buttigieg passes an improving Sanders; Bloomberg skyrockets to 6th place after his filing for Alabama primary sparks speculation of a run

Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline, dropping from 2.25X to 2.27X. These are his lowest odds in over 6 months (since mid April). He is still more than twice as high as Warren, his closest competitor. His odds against the top 5 Democrats saw a more dramatic drop (from 45.3% to 44.7%) as their combined odds improved from 1.86X to 1.75X.

Elizabeth Warren continued her recent trend of drops. She was down from 4.17X to 4.89X. She has now dropped for four straight weeks and is at an 8 weeks low. Although there isn’t any direct news that would hurt her candidacy, more moderate alternatives like Buttigieg and Bloomberg are eating into her grip on the Democratic nomination.

Pete Buttigieg seems to have taken the torch from Warren in recent weeks. It’s no coincidence that his hot streak started at the same time as the end of Warren’s. His odds have improved from last week’s 14.3X to 11.4X. He has nearly tripled his odds from 7 weeks ago (31.1X). Buttigieg has been gaining ground in Iowa especially at the expense of Biden. He jumped Sanders in the odds this week, despite the improvement from Sanders (12.8X to 12.1X).

Michael Bloomberg has not officially entered, but he did file for the Alabama primary (Alabama has an early deadline). He is considering jumping in as he sees Biden’s chances dropping. There is a lot of speculation on a potential path to the nomination. Even without his formal entry, Bloomberg’s odds jumped to take him from 12th place to 6th place overall as they moved from 88.4X to 16.1X, his all time high.

Here are the odds for candidates with a better than 250X to 1 shot and a trend of the top candidates:

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No change in Trump’s Odds; Warren drops for 3rd week in a row as momentum for Buttigieg and Sanders continues; One time leaders struggle as Beto drops out and Kamala conserves cash

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.25X. They have been very resilient the last 4 weeks showing no impact from a possible impeachment. The odds were at 2.24X three weeks ago. Trump’s odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved slightly from 44.1% to 44.2% as their combined odds dropped from 1.77X to 1.78X driven by Elizabeth Warren.

Warren’s odds dropped for a third straight week. Her odds on the week came in at 4.17X, down from last week’s 3.82X and 3.32X in mid October. These are her lowest odds in 6 weeks. Her odds are following the same trend as other front-runners before her. She is the fifth Democratic leader in just 2019 (Kamala Harris twice, Biden, and Sanders)

The two movers up this week are Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.

Sanders improved from 14.3X to 12.8X. His odds have rebounded from the heart attack lows of 22.1X four weeks ago. Sanders seems to have the highest credibility among young liberals, and AOC campaigning in Iowa for him will only reinforce that.

Pete Buttigieg seems to be benefiting with his pitch as the only Democratic centrist with any kind of money left. Biden might be leading, but he may be in a cash crunch. Buttigieg’s odds improved from 16.4X to 14.3X. These are his best odds since June. He has now improved in 5 straight weeks.

Two once promising candidates continued to see their odds drop.

Beto O’Rourke dropped out on Friday, and his odds tanked moving from 138X to 212X. O’Rourke peaked around Christmas of 2018 when his odds were around 7.7X. He was briefly the Democratic leader for three weeks in December 2018.

Kamala Harris also once held the Democratic lead, and has seen her odds drop. Her odds dropped from 57.7X to 61.9X as word came out she had cut her staff to conserve cash. This is yet another odds low for her. She led the Democratic field as recently as end of July.

Here are the odds for all candidates with better than 250X odds and the trend of the top candidates:

For updates follow us on Twitter

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