All posts by Aztocas

Biden passes Harris for the first time; Trump and DeSantis continue to improve

Joe Biden’s odds finally caught up and passed his VP Kamala Harris this week. This is the first time this entire cycle. His odds jumped from 5.18X to 4.96X, his best odds. Kamala Harris dropped from 4.90X to 5.13X, her worst odds of the cycle. A New Hampshire poll was released showing him with a commanding lead above all other Democratic candidates at 49% saying they would vote for him if the primary was today, 43% unsure, and only 9% for other candidates.

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement from 7.77X to 7.75X, his best in 9 weeks and his third straight week of improvement.

Ron DeSantis reached another new high improving from 12.4X to 12.2X. He has been the most consistently improving candidate over the last few months.

Here are the top 50 candidates:

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Odds between Harris and Biden continue to narrow with Harris dropping and Biden rising; Trump has his highest odds in 8 weeks; The top 4 improvements in the top 15 all from women

The narrowing trend between Harris and Biden continued as Harris dropped for the third week in a row dropping from 4.83X to 4.90X, her lowest since mid January. Biden improved for a 6th straight week this week from 5.24X to 5.18X. These are his best odds since the second week of the year. The gap is now the lowest since that second week of the year.

Donald Trump improved his odds from 7.85X to 7.77X, his best odds in 8 weeks.

Interestingly the biggest improvements are all from women:

AOC improved from 34.1X to 31.6X. She is in 9th place

Ivanka Trump improved from 37.9X to 35.8X. She is in 10th place

Michelle Obama improved from 50.6X to 43.9X. That allowed her to jump from 18th place to 14th place.

Kristi Noem improved from 50.2X to 46.1X. That allowed her to jump from 17th place to 15th place.

Here are the top 50 candidates:

Views – 12

Biden’s odds continue to converge to Harris’ as he improves and she drops; Trump’s odds flat and at a 7 week high; DeSantis continues to be the hottest name

Kamala Harris’ odds continued their slow decline dropping from 4.68X to 4.83X this week. That is her lowest since the middle of January.

Joe Biden kept getting closer, improving from 5.34X to 5.24X, his best odds since the second week of January. The gap between Biden and Harris is now only 9%, the lowest since the first week of the year.

Donald Trump’s odds were flat to last week at 7.85X. These are the highest in 7 weeks.

The hottest name in the last 4 or 5 months has been Ron DeSantis. He continued to improve this week from 12.53X to 12.46X, another all time high. The gap between him and Nikki Haley (15.8X) and Mike Pence (18.2X) continues to widen.

Here are the odds of the top 50:

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