Donald Trump’s odds rebounded a bit from 2.82X to 2.59X. Although that is a big jump, it’s still his second lowest since the end of July. Biden’s odds dropped from 1.44X to 1.52X. The implied Biden probability decreased from 66.2% to 63.0%. Despite the drop, this is still his second highest implied odds.
Here are the odds:
There was very little change in the electoral forecast as one model increased the votes for Trump and two others for Biden. In Total, the Biden Electoral total increased by one and is now at 338 Biden and 200 Trump. The edge for Biden ranges from 127 to 156 Electoral votes. Here are the different models:
Keeping it simple: It looks like Georgia might be moving towards the Democrats this week. For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas and Iowa, and make up for being behind in Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The two states most likely to flip have are currently forecast at basically a tossup in Georgia and Biden +0.2% for Ohio. The most difficult state that Trump has to turn is Pennsylvania which is currently Biden +6.5% The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 2)
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