Trump’s odds see a drop post debate, and another drop post hospitalization; Biden picks up a few Electoral votes in the projections, close to his all time high

With Donald Trump in the hospital with COVID, The betting odds on the betting consolidation site we use have been suspended. It doesn’t make sense to get odds from other sites for trend purposes.

Predictit.org has a market that we can look at in the mean:

9/26: Odds for Trump were 0.57 Biden, 0.47 Trump, 0.01 Pence, 0.05 Harris. These would imply odds of 54.8% for Biden, close to our implied odds from last week of 53.8%.

9/30 after the Presidential debate: 0.62 Biden, 0.42 Trump, 0.01 Pence, 0.02 Harris (Harris drops as Biden doesn’t flat on his face at debate?). The implied odds for Biden go up to 59.6%

10/2 Trump announces he has COVID and later gets admitted to Walter Reed: 0.64 Biden, 0.37 Trump, 0.05 Pence (hedge on Trump not finishing campaign), and Harris 0.04 (hedge on Biden getting COVID?). The implied odds of JUST Biden vs. Trump are now at 63.3%. Odds of the 4 combined tilt 61.8% Democrats.

Here’s a trend of the odds courtesy of Predictit.org. Note the bar graph reflecting the volume which spikes a bit with the debate and then goes much higher with the hospitalization.

The models were also updated. Any model with a change showed improvement for Biden. The other interesting thing about the models is their convergence. We started tacking the models back in July and there was a standard deviation between their results for Trump of 27. It is now down to 8 electoral votes. The average is now at 327-211 Biden victory, up from 323 last week. This is close to the high achieved by Biden on 8/8. Trump’s high was at the start of the tracking at 224 Electoral votes. Here’s the summary:

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Iowa, and Georgia, and make up for being behind in Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 3)

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