Joe Biden’s saw a small improvement in odds from 1.81X to 1.80X. This was his second straight increase.
Donald Trump saw the mirror image change decreasing from 2.04X to 2.05X.
As a result, the implied odds for Joe Biden moved up slightly from 53.0% to 53.2%.
Here’s the overall odds and trend:
As we get closer to the election, the models are being updated more often. Four models made changes this week with two benefiting each candidate. The net result is a one point increase for Trump. The forecast is now at 323 for Biden and 215 for Biden. Details below:
Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio and make up for being behind in North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The only change from last week is Iowa’s flip appearing easier to turn for the Dems than Texas. This brings it back to where it was two weeks prior. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 5)
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