A bad week for Donald Trump finally resulted in Joe Biden overtaking him. With the focus on the George Floyd protests, Trump’s approval rating dropped to its lowest level since November 2019 (time of Ukraine call testimony). His odds dropped from 1.98X to 2.11X, his lowest since beginning of December. Biden’s odds improved from 2.06X to 1.90X, and all time high for him. Trump’s all time high was 1.59X back near the end of February. The implied odds head to head are now 52.6% Biden and 47.4% Trump.
Here are the full odds:
On the VP side, the likelihood Biden would pick an African American woman as his VP continued to increase. Kamala Harris reached a new high at 2.5X. Val Demings improved again from 7.7X to 5.9X. Susan Rice made her debut at 20.0X. The biggest drop came from the only non African American near the top in Elizabeth Warren. He odds worsened from 7.7X to 12.5X. Out of the top 6 candidates, 5 of them are African American women.
Here are the full odds:
Many polls came out this past week. Some of the more important ones:
- Texas Trump +1: If this state turns for the Democrats the race is all but over. Still keeping this in Trump’s column
- Ohio Biden +2: Biden gets 2 of the last 3 polls in that state but keeping it as a tossup for now
- 3 North Carolina polls: Biden +4, Biden +1, Trump +3. Keeping this as a tossup as well
- Arizona Biden + 4 and Trump +1; Previous 3 polls to this one were for Biden. Keeping state for Biden for now
- Wisconsin Biden +9 and tie; Both polls seem extreme. Previous 3 polls were for Biden but by a small margin. Keeping tossup for now but definitely leaning Biden.
- Pennsylvania Trump +4; Previous 3 polls were Biden by an average of +7. Keeping this to Biden for now. Will move to tossup if next poll goes to Trump
- Florida Biden +3. That is five in a row for Biden in Florida which is huge. Keeping to Biden for now.
We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:
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