Trump’s Odds See Slight Improvement while Biden’s Stayed Flat. Obama’s Odds Jump to 14 Months High; Warren’s VP Odds Improve; Iowa Poll Shows Trump’s Lead in State Shrinking

Trump’s odds inched up from 1.93X to 1.91X. That is a three week high. Joe Biden’s odds stayed flat at 2.27X , his lowest since he became the presumptive nominee. That raised Trump’s implied odds against Biden to 54.2%, tied for the highest lead since it became a one on one race.

With Biden stuck, there have been some movement in the Democratic field. The biggest move this week came from Michelle Obama. She has been more visible lately with the release of her Netflix documentary and publicity about her co-headlining some virtual graduation ceremonies. Her odds jumped this week from 85.0X to 63.9X. She has been improving the last two months from 178.5X at the beginning of March to 113.2X middle of April. Her current odds are at a 14 months high.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, Warren moved a little closer to Harris and Klobuchar. Masto is perhaps the least publicized candidate but is holding up to lead that second tier.

Here are the full odds:

Many polls were released this week, but most were for strong Biden states (NY, NJ, CT, MA) where Biden’s lead ranged from 19 to 34. There was one swing state pull in IA showing Trump +2. We already have Iowa going to Trump, but this follows an early March poll showing Trump +!0.

No changes made in the projections: 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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