Trump sees small decline, but still widens lead over Biden; Clinton endorses Biden, and sees her own odds jump; Harris and Klobuchar continue to lead for Dem VP; Could TX become a swing state?

Trump’s odds dropped slightly from 1.92X to 1.93X, his lowest odds in seven weeks. His gap with Biden widened however as Biden’s odds dropped by a wider margin moving from 2.13X to 2.27X, his lowest in eight weeks. That puts Trump’s relative odds vs. Biden at 54%, his highest in four weeks.

The number of Democrats endorsing Biden continued to grow, and this week it was Hillary Clinton with the endorsement. Interestingly, Clinton’s odds saw the biggest move this week, jumping from 48.3X to 23.8X, her highest odds since May 2017.

Here are the full odds:

There were no changes in the likely candidates for VP as Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar continued on top of the list, with Warren in the second tier, and Abrams and Whitmer part of the third tier. 5 of the top 8 candidates are female Senators.

Here are the full odds:

On the state polling side, Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll showing Biden +5 in NC
  • Poll showing Biden +1 in TX
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in NH
  • Poll showing Biden +6 in PA
  • Poll showing tie in TX

The two biggest items as far as the polls is the continuing strength of Biden in PA, which is a must win for both candidates, and the possibility of TX flipping to the Democrats. Right now we still have TX in Trump’s column, and as a result there were no changes made in the projections: 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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