Sanders’ win in NV propels his odds to another new high; Trump stays near all time highs; Biden big winner as centrist Dems look to consolidate; Bloomberg sees second big drop in a row, as he continues to eye Big Tuesday; Warren and Klobuchar reach new lows

Donald Trump’s Odds remained near an all time high for a fourth straight week coming in at 1.60X vs. last week’s 1.59X. The odds had been at 1.59X. the all time high, for three straight weeks. Trunp’s odds against the top 5 candidates decreased slightly from 56.7% to 56.5% as their combined odds improved from 2.09X to 2.08X.

Sanders dominated Nevada and his odds improved from their previous high of 4.22X to this week’s 3.99X. Sanders won just shy of 47% of the vote and 2/3 of the delegates.

Joe Biden was the odds winner on the week as it became clear that Democrats not wanting Sanders have to unite behind one candidate. His odds jumped from 20.3X to 8.71X, his highest in four weeks. He is likely to win South Carolina. If he disappoints, the centrist Democrats will have to find someone else to get behind for Super Tuesday, including possibly Bloomberg.

Michael Bloomberg had his second bad week in a row dropping from 7.58X to 12.0X, which is where he was six weeks ago. He took part in his second debate and had a small improvement but still not enough. He of course has bid everything on Super Tuesday and would likely benefit from a Sanders win with all the moderate votes being split up.

Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar all had their odds cut by nearly a half as the realization that they have not done well enough to jump close to Sanders and are not likely to do well in South Carolina, means they have very little left for Super Tuesday:

  • Buttigieg dropped from 24.1X to 45.4X, his lowest in 4 weeks
  • Warren dropped from 53.4X to 97.6X, her all time low. She has the high for the Democrats this cycle (higher than Sanders is currently at) at 3.3X in October of 2019
  • Klobuchar dropped from 86.7X to 178.5X, a new all time low for her

Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds for the field:

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