Trump’s odds at nine week high on the back of increased impeachment driven fundraising; Is Buttigieg passing the momentum to Sanders; Warren’s slide continues; Klobuchar with sustained under the radar improvement

Donald Trump’s saw a fairly significant jump from 2.27X to 2.14X. Prior to this he had been in a range from 2.20X to 2.29X for the last nine weeks. This is the highest his odds have been since the end of September. His campaign seems to be taking advantage of fundraising from his base as a result of the continued impeachment activity. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved from 45.6% to 47.4% as their combined odds dropped from 1.90X to 1.92X.

The hottest name for the Democrats from June to mid October was Elizabeth Warren. Pete Buttigieg then took over and the momentum. Could Bernie Sanders be next? Sanders saw his odds improve from 10.5X to 10.1X. Although that is not a big jump, it is significant when put in context. He was the only one of the top 5 Democrats to improve on the week and combined with Warren’s continued slipping, he was able to pass her into 4th place overall. Although the polls don’t quite reflect this reality, his positioning in early states may lead to momentum there that will carry to the national polls.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds kept slipping, this week from 9.5X to 10.2X. These are her lowest odds in nearly 6 months. Just four weeks ago, Warren was the leader for the Democrats. She has since fallen behind Biden, Buttigieg, and now Sanders.

One candidate that has been gaining consistent momentum under the radar is Amy Klobuchar. Her odds improved this week from 62.0X to 60.8X. She has improved in 8 of the last 9 weeks when she was at 141X when she was in 16th place overall. She is now in 11th place overall.

We are now down to only 18 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot (with only 11 of them officially in). Here is the list:

Here is a trend of the top candidates:

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