Initial Election Forecast Clinton vs Trump

With the likelihood of a Clinton vs. Trump election reaching near certainty, I will start forecasting the elections based on poll results.

This initial forecast is based on a combination of the results of the last 5 elections and available polls and forecast.

The current forecast has Clinton in the lead by a wide margin (314 to 224), although admittedly most of the Clinton vs. Trump polling was taken prior to Trump becoming the presumptive nominee.

Recent polling has helped Trump make up ground.  For example he made up 9 points recently due to polls in Florida that changed the forecast to Lean D vs. the prior Likely D, and polls in OH that shifted the forecast from Lean D to Tossup.

The forecast has 164 either solid or likely for Trump and 217 either solid or likely for Clinton.  A trump victory hinges on winning 67% of the 157 electoral votes that are truly up in the air. The biggest of these are FL (29), PA (20), and OH (18).

Here is the current state by state forecast:

May 15 2016 Forecast

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Click here for list of changes from prior forecasts

Click here for results from last 5 elections

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