Updated Odds: Clinton up Biden tanks after First Democratic Debate; Trump Back to Third; Bush Slump Continues

Hillary Clinton was up 3.6% to 43.4% post the first Democratic debate.   Clinton seems to have regained momentum now up for a third straight week and reaching her highest probability since the beginning on September.

The debates seems not to only have helped Clinton, but the overall odds of the Democrats capturing the White House.  The combined odds of Democratic candidates increased from 58.5% to 60.3%.

The biggest loser on the night seems to have been Joe Biden.  Biden has not declared yet if he is running, but the need for him to run seems to have declined with Clinton’s performance.  He dropped from 8.2% and third overall to 7% and 5th overall.

Despite Clinton’s performance, Bernie Sanders managed to improve from 5.3% to 5.9%, his all time high.  He remains in 6th place overall.

Jeb Bush continued to lead the odds on the Republican side but now has dropped for four straight weeks.  He came in at 8.9% from 9.7% last week and 12.6% four weeks ago.

Donald Trump has regained momentum jumping from 5th place back to 3rd place at 7.6%, hopping over both Biden and Marco Rubio.

Rubio declined by 0.2% to 7.5% but stayed in 4th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

October 17 2015 pres odds


Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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