Updated Odds after Third Republican Debate: Clinton, Rubio Strengthen Leads; Bush and Fiorina Fall; Carson and Cruz up

Hillary Clinton had another great week.  Her odds improved from 56.2% to 60.5%.  That is the highest any candidate has been.  She is up over 20% in the last 3 weeks.

The other hot candidate has been Marco Rubio.  Rubio continues to hold the 2nd spot for the second straight week at 10.3% up from 7.9%.  This is the highest probability he has ever had and the biggest lead he has had in the Republican race.

Bush, last week’s 3rd place finisher, continued to decline.  He drops from 3rd place to 5th place as he gets passed by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.  This week’s decline for Bush was particularly bad as his odds nearly got cut in half from 7.0% to 3.8%.  This is the 6th straight decline for Bush.  He was at 12.6% just 6 weeks ago.

Despite a decrease in odds, Donald Trump was able to jump up to 3rd place overall.   His odds dropped from 6.8% to 5.7%.  Trump has been struggling lately.  He is down the last two weeks and has not gained any ground since the end of August.

Bernie Sanders also had a tough week dropping from 6% to 5%.  That was still good enough to allow him to move to 4th place overall passing Bush.

Aside from Rubio, the other winners of the debate appear to be Ben Carson and Ted Cruz.

Ben Carson was up 0.6% to 2.5%, his all time high.  He remains in 6th place overall.

Ted Cruz was up 0.5% to 1.6%.  That was enough to move him from 9th place to 7th place.  He was in 12th place as recently as 2 weeks ago.

Aside from Bush, the other loser was Carly Fiorina who dropped from 1.7% to 1.1% moving her to 8th place.

Here are the full standings:

October 31 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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