Updated Odds: Clinton and Bush Trend Down; Trump, Sanders up; Fiorina and Carson into top 10

For the third straight week, Hillary Clinton has lost ground.  This week she drops 0.5% to 43.8%.  That is her lowest since the end of July.  Clinton’s lead remains large however, with her closest competitor being Jeb Bush.

Bush also dropped 0.5% this week to 12.5%.  That is his lowest since the middle of July.  He has been losing ground to Donald Trump who once again was the biggest gainer.

Trump gained 0.8% to 7.3%.  Trump was less than 2% at the beginning of August and less than 1% at the beginning of July.  This is his 3rd week in 3rd place.

Joe Biden comes in 4th place at 4.2%,  flat to last week.  Biden had risen the past 4 weeks from 1.6% among speculation that he may be running.  He still has not made a decision.

Bernie Sanders comes in 5th place and resumes his rise.  He is at 3.9% up from 3.5%.  Sanders had been pretty stagnant the last three weeks as Biden rose.  With Biden flat this week, the gain in odds went to Sanders.

John Kasich’s steady rise continued for an 8th straight week.  He rose fro 1.9% last week to 2.2% .  Kasich has more than double his odds from 0.9% at the start of the streak.  He remains in 8th place but is within striking distance of Scott Walker who has been heading in the other direction.

Walker was down for the 9th straight week to come in at 2.6% from last week’s 2.7%.  Walker was at 4.1% in the middle of July which was good for 4th place. He is now in 7th place.

There are two new entrants into the top 10.  Carly Fiorina makes her debut in the ninth spot up from 13th place.  Her momentum has even caused CNN to change its debate criteria which now will likely include her.

The other new entrant with tremendous momentum is Ben Carson.  Carson improved from 14th place to 10th place. Recent polls have Carson in second place in Iowa behind Trump.

The rise of Fiorina and Carson has been at the expense of Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. They both fell out of the top 10.  Rand Paul has now fallen for ten straight weeks while Cruz has been fairly flat in his odds with rivals jumping over him.

Here’s a list of all the candidates:

September 5 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

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