Updated Odds: Trump and Sanders Continue Rise; Bush and Walker Slip; Biden up for Second Week Amid Speculation

For the first time in seven weeks, Hillary Clinton did not increase her odds.  The increase in odds the past few weeks was most likely driven by the likelihood of new candidates entering decreasing rather than Clinton gaining traction.  She is by far the top candidate at 47.5%.

The second place candidate remains Jeb Bush although with candidates from both sides taking jabs at him, Bush declined by 0.9% to 13.1%.  That is his lowest in the last three weeks. Bush remains 10% ahead of the next closest Republican competitor.

The biggest mover on the week and up to 3rd place is Sanders.  He was up 0.5% to 3.6%.  He jumps over Marco Rubio and Scott Walker.  In just the span of 4 months, Sanders has gone from an unlikely candidate outside the top 40 to being Clinton’s primary challenger and the third best chance overall.

Rubio drops to 4th overall but remains flat at 3.4%.  He is looking in his rear-view mirror at fast approaching Donald Trump.  Trump continues to amaze improving from 2.9% to 3.3%.   Trump’s rise has been even faster that Sanders.  In the last 9 weeks he has gone from non candidate to 5th place overall.

To get to 5th place, Trump jumped over one of the biggest losers of the week, Scott Walker.  Walker drops from 3.4% to 3.1% and 4th place to 6th place.  This is his lowest point as far as odds since February.

Talk of Joe Biden running gains momentum for a second straight week.  He remains in 7th place overall but is up by 0.3% to 2.9%.  He was at 1.6% two weeks ago.

Others with momentum include John Kasich who has improved for 5 straight weeks and is now in 8th place and Carly Fiorina who is up to 13th place from 24th place prior to the debate.

Here is the overall leaderboard:

August 15 2015 pres odds

 

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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