Updated Odds: First Republican Debate Winners & Losers; Biden Speculation

The biggest moves for the week were the result of the first Republican Debate.

Jeb Bush moved very little post debate as he seems to have done well enough not to sink.  He is in 2nd place overall at 14% and well ahead of hist closest competition in Marco Rubio and Scott Walker.

Although Rubio drew rave reviews from some, he actually dropped from 4.0% to 3.4%.  He remains in third overall slightly ahead of Walker.

Walker was another top candidate who did not make an impression one way or another.  He remained in 4th overall dropping slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%.

The hottest name continued to be Donald Trump.  Despite his controversial answers at the debate (may run as an independent, comments about women, etc.) and his comments afterwards, Trump managed once again to improve for the 5th straight week.  Over those 5 weeks he has improved from 0.8% to 2.9% and 18th overall to this week’s 6th place (same as last week).

One winner seems to have been John Kasich who improved from  1.2% to 1.5% which kept him in 9th place overall.

The unquestionable winner of the week however, was Carly Fiorina who’s debate performance rocketed her from 24th place overall to 14th place ahead of prime time debater Ben Carson and fellow “Happy Hour” Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s continue to improve moving from 46.6% to another all time high of 47.5%.  She has gained for six straight weeks as it has become clear that many of the possible Democratic competitors will not challenge her.

One potential challenger who rose dramatically this week was Joe Biden who moved from 1.6% to 2.6%.  He is Clinton’s second leading challenger as far as the odds behind Bernie Sanders who has been fairly stead in the 3.1%-3.2% the last 5 weeks.

Here are the full standings for the week:

August 8 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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