Updated Odds: Rubio Closing Gap on Bush; O’Malley, Pataki, Santorum Enter Race; Christie Continues Slide

Hillary Clinton continued her steadiness at the top increasing her probability by 0.1% to 41.9%.  That, along with Jeb Bush’s 0.2% drop increased her lead over Bush to 30.6%.

The biggest mover near the top was Marco Rubio who improved by 0.3% to 5.7%.  The shrunk Bush’s lead on Rubio to 5.5%, which is the slowest it has been since February 2015.   Back in November, Rubio was actually ahead of Bush.  Bush then surged in December with his announcement that he would explore running, and has been the closest candidate to Clinton since.

All announcements this week have had very little impact:

Martin O’Malley’s announcement only moved him by 0.1%, but enough to get into 10th place overall.  He is currently the 4th leading Democratic candidate although he’s behind one person who has said she is not running (Elizabeth Warren) and one who is unlikely to run (Joe Biden).

Rick Santorum’s entry failed to move him at all.  He remains in 24th place overall at a 0.7% probability.

George Pataki makes his debut  in 46th place overall at only a 0.4% probability.

In other moves, Chris Christie continues to tumble dropping to 8th place at 1.4%.  It’s hard to remember, but back in May 2014, Christie was actually Clinton’s biggest competition, peaking at 4.7%.

Ben Carson moved ahead of Mike Huckabee to 14th place.

Here’s a full list of the odds:

May 30 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

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