Updated Odds and Looking Back A Year

This week’s top 10 came in the same as last week’s with Hillary Clinton leading at 41.8%.  Her closest Democratic competitor is Elizabeth Warren.  Warren has stated she is not running and is in 6th overall at 2%.

The top Republican is Jeb Bush at 11.2%.  He has nearly twice the likelihood as his closest competitor Marco Rubio at 5.4%.  Scott Walker is 4th place overall at 4.3%.

How have the probabilities changed over the last year?

Clinton has not moved much over the last year.  She has been in first place every week and has actually improved her probability slightly from 39.9% to 41.8%.

Marco Rubio was the second place candidate last May at 4.7%.  Although he has dropped to 3rd place, his probability has increased.

Bush was in 4th place last May at 3.5% and has improved dramatically coming in this week at 11.2%.

Who are the other big movers?

Moves up:

-Scott Walker has moved from 10th to 4th overall

-John Kasich from 22nd to 9th

– Mike Huckabee from 22nd to 15th

– Jim Webb from 31st to 17th

Moves down:

-Chris Christie from tied for 2nd to 7th

– Paul Ryan from 4th to to 21st

-Bobby Jindal from 9th to 14th

-Mark Warner from 10th to 24th

-Rick Perry from 10th to 33rd

– Tim Pawlenty and Scott Brown from 10th to no odds

Here is a full list of odds.  I have highlighted the candidates who have declared (green) and those who have announced they will not run (red)

May 16 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

 

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