Updated Weekly Odds: Romney Drops on Announcement; Bush, Rubio, Walker Benefit

Mitt Romney’s announcement that he will not run was the biggest 2016 news this week.  As a result he drops from 5th place to 7th place and gets passed by Rand Paul for 5th and Elizabeth Warren for 6th.  His continued presence in the top 10 suggests either some believe he will jump back in or some of the oddsmakers are slow to react.

The two big beneficiaries were Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio who combined picked up more than what Romney lost.  Bush now has 10% odds (the first person other than Hillary Clinton to have double digits).  Rubio’s 4.6% probability is less than half of Bush’s.

Scott Walker was also a  big gainer improving by 0.3% to 1.8% which puts him at 9th place passing Paul Ryan.  This is the highest Walker has been.  He currently has a slight lead in Iowa based on a recent poll

Rand Paul saw a 0.2% drop and is now at his lowest point since August, although his 2.9% puts him in 5th place.

Ben Carson jumped from 43rd to 30th place.  He is seen as the “outsider” on the GOP side and has managed to connect with the conservative voters. He has yet to decide if he is running.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to lead but had a 0.8% drop to 38.1%.  Her lowest since November.

Jim Webb jumped from 48th to 23rd place.  Webb has been quiet recently after announcing an exploratory committee late last year.  He is recovering from knee replacement surgery.

Here’s the full odds

Jan 31 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

 

 

 

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